Maize stands as Mexico's most vital crop. During September and October, maize in the country's rainfed areas reached its maturation stage. The planting of irrigated maize commenced in September, primarily in Sinaloa, located in Mexico's northwest. The sowing of winter wheat starts in October. By the end of the current reporting period, both soybeans and rice had achieved maturity.

As compared to the 15YA, agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN decreased by 28%, TEMP increased by 1.4°C, RADPAR was at the average level, and BIOMSS decreased by 15%. The CALF decreased by 13%. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, overall crop growth in Mexico was significantly below average.

From June to September, Mexico experienced its worst drought in over 15 years, marked by persistently high temperatures and severe deficits in precipitation. According to reports, during the monitoring period, three-quarters of the country suffered from a lack of rainfall, with about half the regions facing severe to extreme drought. This situation was reflected in the growth of crops. 66.5% of the total cropped areas showed below-average crop conditions, with none exhibiting above-average conditions. Only in the regions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and Chiapas crop conditions were average. Central and northern Mexico, as well as coastal areas, were adversely affected by the drought.

Previous reports indicated that in June and July, crop yields were severely threatened due to insufficient irrigation. The situation remained grim through October, with ongoing drought and water shortages. The CropWatch team believed that Mexico's food production faces even more severe challenges this year. Authorities have been urged to take emergency measures in water supply. Mexico declared a drought emergency, and the government controlled and rationally allocated water for production and domestic use.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region in northern and central Mexico encountered a significant 60% decrease in RAIN, with average TEMP reaching 24.5°C (+1.9°C). RADPAR recorded a value of 1307 MJ/m2. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were significantly below average throughout the monitoring period. The CALF was 55%, marking a 31% decrease from the five-year average. The VCIx value was 0.56.

The Humid tropics region with summer rainfall in southeastern Mexico experienced decreased RAIN with 1152 mm recorded (11% decrease). TEMP increased by 0.9°C to 25.7°C, and RADPAR remained unchanged. BIOMSS exhibited a reduction of 17% at 1421 g DM/m2. The VCIx value was 0.91. The region's high VCIx of 0.91 indicated generally normal crop growth. However, according to the NDVI-based development graph, conditions were close to but slightly below the average.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains in central Mexico experienced decreased RAIN with 874 mm recorded (28% decrease). TEMP increased to 20.0°C by 1.2°C, and RADPAR slightly rose to 1262 MJ/m2 (+3%). BIOMSS exhibited a reduction of 5% at 1103 g DM/m2. CALF was stable at 91%, and the VCIx value was 0.79. Crop conditions were below the average level, as indicated by the NDVI-based development graph.

The Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains region in southern Mexico experienced a notable reduction in RAIN with 1023 mm recorded (17% decrease). TEMP rose to 23.6°C (+1.3°C), while RADPAR increased by 1%. BIOMSS displayed a decline of 5% at 1226 g DM/m2. CALF remained steady at 93%, and the VCIx value was 0.84. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were below-average during the four-month period.

Figure 3.5 Mexico’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.2 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.3 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023