During this reporting period, the maize sowing started in  September. The growing of the main rice crop started in July. It reached the harvesting season in October. According to the CropWatch monitoring results, crop conditions were below average.

According to the agroclimatic indicators, the rainfall deficit in Myanmar appeared to be easing. Compared to the 15YA, RAIN was lower (-5%), while TEMP was higher (+0.7ºC), and RADPAR was up by 4%. BIOMSS was on average. 98% of cropland was utilized, 1% higher than 5YA. NDVI values were average in July, while declined substantially in August, and tended to recover after that. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.94. The CPI value was 1.02, which represents an average agricultural production situation for this period.

As shown by the NDVI clusters map and profiles, the crop conditions across the country were heterogeneous and generally below average. 28.3% of the cropland, distributed mainly in the Central Plain, generally showed average crop conditions. More than 50% of the cropland showed near average crop conditions in July, September and October, but was apparently below average in August. 15.7% of the cropland showed below-average crop conditions in August and early September. The maximum VCI values showed a similar distribution as the cluster map.

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central Plain (132), the Delta and Southern Coast regions (133), and the Hills (134).

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -18%), and RADPAR (+7%) and TEMP (+1.0ºC) were higher as compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 3% lower than the 15YA. CALF showed that 98% of the cropland was utilized. The NDVI values were similar to that of the whole country. The VCIx was 0.95. The CPI was 1.04. Crop conditions for this region were below average.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had an above-average rainfall (RAIN 8%). RADPAR was 1% below average, while TEMP was 0.3ºC above average. BIOMSS was on average. The cropland was also not fully utilized (CALF 96%). The NDVI values were below the 5YA during almost the whole period. VCIx was 0.92. The CPI was 1.01. Crop conditions in this region were below average.

The Hills region also had below-average rainfall (RAIN -8%). RADPAR and TEMP increased by 4% and 0.7ºC. BIOMSS (+1%) was slightly higher than the 15YA. 99% of cropland was utilized. NDVI was below the level of the 5YA for most of the period. The VCIx was 0.95. The CPI was 0.98. Crop conditions are assessed as below the 5YA level.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, July – October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f)  Rainfall Profile

(g) Temperature Profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central plain region(left) and Hills region(right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2023

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2023