The monitoring period, from July to October, is critical for wheat cultivation, Mongolia's primary cereal crop. In Mongolia, where a mere 2.9% of cropland is irrigated. Hence, rainfall has a big impact on crop production. 

RAIN was close to average (ΔRAIN +1%). A notable increase in TEMP (+1.5°C) was measured. This rise in TEMP could have both positive and negative implications depending on the region. Warmer conditions may have accelerated crop growth in some areas (The Hangai Khuvsgul region and Selenge-Onon region), while potentially stressing crops in others (The Central and Eastern Steppe Region). Photosynthetically Active Radiation (RADPAR) was slightly below the average by 3%. The biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) was 3% higher than the 15-year average.

The Maximum VCI map indicates that most of the country, especially in the central agricultural zones like Hangai Khuvsgul Region and Selenge-Onon Region, has green to blue areas, denoting generally healthy vegetation conditions for the season. This aligns well with the slightly above-average NDVI readings, confirming that despite some areas of concern, the majority of the country has experienced good to excellent vegetation health during this period. And the average VCIx was 0.93. The stability in the cropped arable land fraction, consistently at 99%, indicates a sustained use of arable land for agriculture, showcasing effective land utilization patterns. Cropping intensity (CI) was slightly below average (ΔCI, -1%).

Overall, the crop conditions in Mongolia during this monitoring period were generally normal. CropWatch predicts a 3.6% increase in wheat production in 2023 compared to 2022.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Mongolia can be divided into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Altai (135), Gobi Desert (136), Hangai Khuvsgul Region (137), Selenge-Onon Region (138) and Central and Eastern Steppe (139). Altai and Gobi Desert have no cultivated land, so we are mainly concerned with the three regions of Hangai Khuvsgul Region, Selenge-Onon Region and Central and Eastern Steppe.

Hangai Khuvsgul region: 

In the Hangai Khuvsgul region of Mongolia, the period of July to October 2023 showed some distinct agroclimatic and agronomic trends. The region experienced a 5% increase in RAIN compared to the 15-year average, with a current measurement of 317 mm. This is indicative of a wetter season than usual. TEMP showed a significant rise, being 1.7°C higher than the average, at 8.4°C. RADPAR was slightly below average by 3%. BIOMSS in this region was 9% higher than the 15-year average, reflecting an increased potential for crop biomass accumulation due to favorable rainfall. The cropped arable land fraction remained stable at 99%, with no significant departure from the 5-year average. The cropping intensity was slightly lower at 101%, a 1% decrease from the 5-year average. The Maximum VCI was 0.92, suggesting generally good vegetation health and condition.

Selenge-Onon region: 

The Selenge-Onon region, a crucial agricultural area of Mongolia, displayed a slightly different set of agroclimatic conditions. The RAIN was 3% higher than the 15-year average, with a current measurement of 286 mm, indicating a marginally wetter season. TEMP was also above the average by 1.3°C. This warmer temperature, coupled with adequate rainfall, likely contributed positively to crop growth. RADPAR was below the average by 3%. BIOMSS saw a minor increase of 2% compared to the 15-year average. The cropped arable land fraction was 100%, and the cropping intensity was 101%, both indicating effective utilization of arable land. The Maximum VCI was 0.94, reflecting healthy crop conditions overall. 

Central and Eastern Steppe Region: 

In the Central and Eastern Steppe region, the agroclimatic conditions were more challenging. RAIN saw a significant decrease of 18% compared to the 15-year average, with a total of of 185 mm. This reduction in rainfall could have impacted crop water availability. TEMP was slightly higher than average by 1.2°C. RADPAR was near the average, with a minor 1% decrease. BIOMSS experienced a notable decrease of 10% from the 15-year average, likely impacted by reduced rainfall. The cropped arable land fraction was 99%, with a minor 1% decrease from the 5-year average. The cropping intensity remained stable at 100%. The Maximum VCI was 0.91, indicating reasonably good crop conditions despite the reduced rainfall.

Figure 3.31 Mongolia’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI	(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles                                       (g) Temperature profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hangai Khuvsgul Region (left) and Selenge-Onon Region (right))
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central and Eastern Steppe)

Table 3.54 Mongolia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.55 Mongolia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023