National Analysis

In Mozambique, less than 10% of cultivated arable land is under irrigation, making crop production primarily reliant on rainfall. During the July to October 2023 monitoring period, which coincides with the dry season, rice and maize planting started in October. Rainfall (+22.6%) was above average, although the levels were still very low since this was the dry period.  Additionally, the temperature rose by 0.6°C while photosynthetic active radiation decreased by 3%. These combined indicators provided favourable conditions for the planting period of rice and maize in the southern region, leading to an 8% increase in total biomass production during their early development stages compared to the average of the past fifteen years.

The national crop development graph, based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), revealed that crop conditions across the country were slightly below the average of the past five years initially but recovered to the average by late August, remaining consistent until the end of the reporting period. However, despite this recovery in late August, spatial analysis of NDVI patterns compared to the five-year average and NDVI profiles showed that only 31% of the country experienced above-average crop conditions. According to the Vegetation Condition Index map, these favorable conditions were observed in the northern province of Nampula, the coastal region of Sofala province, and the irrigated areas of Gaza and Maputo provinces. Agronomic indicators during this period indicated a slight decrease in the cropped arable land fraction (ΔCALF -1%) with a maximum VCI of 0.77. Nevertheless, with cropping intensity increasing by 2% compared to the fifteen-year average and the anticipation of favourable agroclimatic conditions for the upcoming agricultural season, there are promising prospects for crop production in Mozambique.

Regional analysis

Based on the national cropping system, topography, and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agroecological zones (AEZs) including the Buzi basin (140), Northern High-altitude areas (141), Low Zambezi River basin (142), Northern coast (143), and the Southern region (144). 

Overall, at the regional level, agroclimatic indicators showed positive anomalies in both rainfall and temperature. During this period, rainfall increased by 88% in the Buzi basin, 68% in the Low Zambezia river basin, and 59% in the Southern region. Significant decreases were observed in the Northern high-altitude areas (ΔRAIN -42%). Additionally, there was a 1% decrease in the Northern coast. Except for the Southern region, where the temperature was around the average of the past fifteen years, it increased in the remaining agroecological zones, with the highest increase (TEMP +0.8ºC) observed in the Northern high-altitude areas. Regarding photosynthetic active radiation, except for the Northern high-altitude areas (RADPAR +1), it decreased in all remaining agroecological regions, with the highest decrease observed in the Buzi basin (RADPAR -7%). Collectively, these indicators led to increases in total biomass production: Buzi basin (BIOMSS +19%), Southern region (BIOMSS +18%), Low Zambezia river basin (BIOMSS +14%), and Northern coast (BIOMSS +1%). However, in the Northern high-altitude areas, total biomass production decreased by 5%.

Regional crop condition development graphs based on NDVI indicate that crop conditions were below the average of the past 5 years in the Buzi basin, Low Zambezia river basin, and Northern coast. In the Northern high-altitude areas, crop conditions were around the average, while in the southern regions, the crop conditions were favourable. They were situated around the average during July and gradually improved. By the end of the reporting period, they were well above the average of the past 5 years, as well as above the same period of last season and above the 5-year maximum. Variations in cropped arable land fraction were also observed. For instance, CALF rose by 3% in the Buzi basin and Southern region. Nevertheless, it decreased by 4% in the Low Zambezia river basin, 3% in the Northern high-altitude areas, and 2% in the Northern coast. The Northern high-altitude areas recorded an increase of 5% in cropping intensity, and the maximum VCIx over the different agroecological regions varied from 0.69 to 0.82, with cropping production index values above 1 observed in the Northern high-altitude areas.

Figure 3.32. Mozambique's crop conditions, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop conditions development graph based on NDVI                               (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                (e) NDVI profiles

(f) National time-series rainfall profiles                                                              (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Southern region

Table 3.55. Mozambique's agroclimatic indicators by sub/national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, July-October 2023

Table 3.56. Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, July-October 2023

Table 3.57. Mozambique’s crop production index, July-October 2023