This report covers the rainy season, and thus the main period for crop production. The major crops being produced are: maize, rice, millet and sorghum.

The rain was usually higher in the southern parts of Nigeria than in the northern parts. There was late commencement of planting generally due to the fluctuations in the beginning of rainfall in the country. According to the forecast of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), the onset of rainfall in central states was expected to take place between April and May, while in the northern states, it was expected to start between June and July. The planting season was predicted to be normal in most parts of the country, with a few areas beginning earlier or later. The growing season in southern parts of the country was expected to last between 250 and 300 days, and 100 to 200 days in the North. However, areas around Kwara, Oyo, Lagos, Nasarawa, Benue, Bayelsa, and Rivers States had a shorter-than-normal growing season. While prolonged growing seasons were experienced in parts of Plateau, Kaduna, Edo, and Imo States.

Overall, rainfall was below average (RAIN -28%), but solar radiation (RADPAR +7%) and temperature (TEMP +1.5°C) were above the 15YA. The resulting biomass was estimated to be below average (BIOMSS -20%). Based on the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly unfavorable as they fell below the 5-year average throughout the monitoring period, but they were near the 2022-2023 conditions in early July and late October 2023.

The NDVI departure clustering map, shows that 10.2% of cropland, sparsely distributed around the country, was always slightly below average from July to October. While 61.9% of the cropped area, mostly distributed around the northern part of the country extending towards the middle belt, together with a few patches found around the southern parts, was always slightly above average throughout the monitoring period.  Another 7.6% of the total land area was below average almost throughout the reporting period except for early October, when it was slightly above average. A total of 13.6%, found mainly in the central part of the country and sparsely distributed in the southern regions, was near average throughout the monitoring period. The sharp drop in early August can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. 

At the national level, since it was the peak of the rainy season for all parts of the country, there was no departure for the cropped arable land (CALF 0%) from 5YA. Also, there was a favorable maximum VCI value of 0.91 and a Crop Production Index (CPI) of 1.19. Crop conditions were mixed. The lack of rainfall caused reduced crop growth in the northern Savannah regions. In the more humid southern regions, rainfall was sufficient to produce a good crop.

Regional Analysis

The analysis focuses on nine (9) agro-ecological zones, transiting from north to south. These are Sahel Savannah (152), Sudan Savannah (153), Guinea Savannah (147), Derived Savannah (145), Jos Plateau (148), Montane Forest (151), Lowland Rainforest (149), Freshwater Swamp Forest (146) and Mangrove Forest (150).

In the Sahel Savanah zone, the agroclimatic indicators showed that accumulated rainfall (RAIN -84%) was far below average due to the late onset of rain, whereas both temperature and radiation (TEMP +1.6°C, RADPAR +4%) were above average, resulting in a below-average biomass production (BIOMSS -38%). Also, CALF (-8%) was below average. VCIx was at 0.80. Cropping intensity was below average (-15%). The crop production index (CPI 1.01) indicate that crop conditions were normal. The NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions in the area were mostly below the 5-year average in almost all of the reporting period.

In the Sudan Savannah, the region adopted similar agricultural practices as the Sahel Savanah zone. The agro-climatic condition showed that accumulated rainfall (RAIN -64%) was below average, while temperature and radiation (TEMP +1.9°C, RADPAR +5%) were above average. There was a significant decrease in the potential biomass (BIOMSS -34%). CALF was average with 0% departure and the maximum VCI was 0.91. Cropping intensity was slightly below average (-1%). The NDVI development graph shows that the crop conditions were close to the 5-year average.

The Guinea Savannah zone also recorded below average rainfall (RAIN -45%), but above-average temperature and radiation (TEMP +1.8°C, RADPAR +9%), potential biomass also dropped (BIOMSS -19%). The CALF was at average with 0% departure.  Cropping intensity was slightly below agerage(-1%) and the maximum VCI was 0.95, with a crop production index (CPI 1.02) which is estimated to be normal. The NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions in the area were mostly below the average for most part of the period except for mid-August, mid-September and late October when they rose to the 5YA.

The Montane Forest which covers a very little portion in the central part of the country, recorded a rainfall of (RAIN -26%), temperature was at (TEMP +1.0°C), while radiation increased to (RADPAR +12%), and biomass dropped down to (BIOMSS -1%). The CALF was at average with 0% departure.  Cropping intensity was below agerage(-6%) and the maximum VCI was 0.98. The NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions were mainly below the 5-year average throughout the reporting period except for early July and early September when they were near average. However, the crop condition was above the 5-year maximum in mid-July 2023.

The Jos Plateau, also located in the central region, recorded rainfall of (RAIN -53%), temperature and radiation were also above average (TEMP +1.7°C, RADPAR +9%), with the potential biomass was down to (BIOMSS -19%). The CALF was 0% and the maximum VCI was 0.92.  Cropping intensity was slightly below average (-1%). The NDVI development graph showed that the crop conditions were all below the 5-year average except in mid-August when the value was above both the 5-year average and 5-year maximum with a recorded crop production index of (CPI 1.00) slightly above normal.

The Derived Savanah region recorded below average rainfall (RAIN -7%), warmer temperatures (TEMP +1.0°C) and above average solar radiation (RADPAR +9%). Potential biomass was below average (BIOMSS -7%). CALF was 0%, and the maximum VCI was at 0.93.  Cropping intensity was below average (-3%), and the crop production index (CPI 0.98) was above normal. The NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions were variable and mostly below the 5-year average throughout the period.

The Lowland Rain Forest recorded an increase in rainfall (RAIN +8%), and warmer temperatures (TEMP +0.7°C). The radiation was above average (RADPAR +5%) and the biomass was also below average (BIOMSS -2%). The CALF was at 0% as there was no significant departure and the maximum VCI was 0.92.  Cropping intensity was below average (-12%). The crop production index (CPI 0.98) was below normal and the crop condition, according to the NDVI development graph, was also typically unstable and below the 5-year average throughout the period.

The Fresh Water Swamp Forest is located in the southern region of the country and does not cover a large area. Rainfall in this area was at (RAIN 0%) temperature was (TEMP +0.5°C), while radiation fell to -1%, and biomass dropped to (BIOMSS -2%). The CALF was above average by +1% and the maximum VCI was 0.90. Cropping intensity was below average (-5%).  The crop condition in this area was also irregular and below the 5-year average.

The Mangrove Forest located in the southern-most part of the country recorded below average rainfall (RAIN -1%), above average temperature (TEMP +0.4°C) and radiation fell below average (RADPAR -2%) and a slightly below average potential biomass production of (BIOMSS -2%), with CALF above average at +3% and a maximum VCI of 0.87.  Cropping intensity was slightly below average (-1%). Also, the NDVI development graph showed irregular crop conditions which were mainly below the 5-year average throughout the reporting period except for early July when it was on average.

Figures 3.34 Nigeria's crop condition, July-October 2023

                                                                     (a) Phenology of major crops

         (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                       (c)Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5YA and NDVI profiles                          (e)NDVI profiles

                                (f) Time series temperature profile                                         (g) Time series rainfall profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Sahel savannah, Right:Sudan Savannah)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Guinea savannah, Right:Derived Savannah)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Jos Plateau, Right:Mountain Forest)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(Left:Low Land Rainforest, Right:Mangroove Forest)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI: Freshwater Swamp

Table 3.60 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA. July-October 2023

Table 3.61 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA. July-October 2023