The reporting period covers the production period for the main crops, maize and rice, which were harvested in October. Additionally, sowing of winter barley and wheat started in October. The agroclimatic and agronomic indicators suggest rather unfavorable crop conditions between July and October.

RAIN was slightly below average (-3%), while TEMP(+0.6℃）was higher than average and RADPAR（-1%) was lower. This resulted in a slight increase in estimated BIOMSS (+5%). Heavy monsoon rains in late July caused flooding conditions in many areas, mainly in the provinces of Punjab, Sindh, and along the Lower Indus River. However, in the Northern highland region, the rainfall deficit that started in August  resulted in drought conditions. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased by 2% compared to the previous five years average.

As shown by the nationwide NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average since late August, then reached average levels in October. Further, the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles indicate that 10.1% of the cropped areas presented continuously below-average conditions during the reporting period, mostly distributed in southern Punjab and along the Lower Indus River. About 50.8% of cropland, distributed in three main production areas, presented below-average conditions in August. The floods had a serious impact on crop growth in Sindh and parts of Punjab, and the drought also impacted on crop growth in Northern Highland, both of which had a maximum VCI lower than 0.5. At the annual scale, even though cropping intensity increased by 4%, the cropped arable land fraction was lower than the average by 2%. All in all, crop production estimates for the summer crops are below average.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indus river basin(150), the Northern highlands(151), and the Northern Punjab(152) region.

Compared to average, RAIN recorded above-average values (+75%), and both TEMP(-0.4℃）and RADPAR（-3%）were below average in the Lower Indus River basin(150). The estimated BIOMSS was 12% above average. NDVI dropped to below average in early August but later recovered to average in October. Since August, the crop conditions were consistently below average, mainly due to heavy rainfall and floods, located in northern Sindh and along the Lower Indus basin. The CALF value of 60% was less than the average by 2% and the VCIx was 0.75. Overall, summer crop production is expected to be below average.

In the Northern highland(151) region,  RAIN decreased by 37%, while TEMP was above average by 1.3℃. BIOMSS decreased by 6%. The region showed a low CALF of 59%, which was less than the 5YA by 3%. The NDVI profile stayed above average during early July and early August, but it declined to below average until October due to less rainfall and high temperature. The VCIx was 0.77. In short, the situation for the region is assessed as below average.

In the Northern Punjab(152) region, which is the main agricultural region of Pakistan, RAIN increased by 42%. Both TEMP(-0.8℃) and RADPAR(-2%) were below average. The resulting BIOMSS was above average by 18%. The NDVI profile presented below average conditions during late July and early September due to abundant monsoon rains. Subsequently, the crop conditions were close to the average. In addition, CALF in this area was 80% and down by 2% compared to the 5YA, but cropping intensity increased by 6%, indicating that the total cultivated crop area was at an above-average level. Overall, the summer crop production potential for the region is assessed as average.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan’s crop condition, July - October 2023

 (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus Basin)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highland）

 (h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Punjab) 

Table 3.56. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, July - October 2023

Table 3.57. Pakistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2023