The monitoring period covers the harvest of spring and winter wheat in July and August, as well as the main growth period of maize and its harvest in September and October. The planting of the new winter crops started in September. During this monitoring period, the rainy conditions in late July and August were not conducive to the harvesting of winter cereals, while the warm and dry weather in September favored crop harvesting as well as planting for the next season. Compared with the average of the last 15 years, precipitation at the national scale was 4% lower, temperature and photosynthetic effective radiation were higher by 1.7℃ and 1%, respectively, and the potential biomass was close to the average. Furthermore, CALF was up to 100% and VCIx was 0.82. CI was 138%, 1% higher than the average of the last 5 years. CPI was 0.95, indicating that crop conditions were slightly below the average of the last 5 years.

Based on the NDVI development curve, crop growth was already below average in the previous monitoring period. It recovered to close average levels thanks to abundant rainfall in August and dropped slightly below the average in October. However, average to above-average rainfall in October created favorable conditions for the sowing of the winter cereals, while conditions for the sowing of canola were on the dry side in September. The distribution map of VCIx shows that VCIx in the central region are mainly between 0.5 and 0.8, while the western and the southeastern regions were mainly above 0.8, which is related to the fact that the central and the northern regions had suffered from more severe water shortages in the previous monitoring period. This is also reflected in the NDVI profiles clustering map, which shows that up to 47.5% of the country's cultivated land (labeled "light green," "dark green," and "blue") crop growth was below average throughout the entire monitoring period in almost all areas, but mainly in the central and northern parts of the country. Another 16.3% of cultivated areas (labeled "red") were significantly above average after August and remained slightly above average until the end of the monitoring period, mainly in the west and in parts of the southeast. The remaining 36.2% of cultivated land (labeled "orange") showed a slow increase in crop growth from the average level in July to above average in October, mainly in the southern region.

Overall, crop growth in Poland was slightly below average, with lower crop yields in most areas, except in the south. Conditions for the sowing of winter wheat were favorable.

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below (shown by Figure (c)  Maximum VCI). They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (163, the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (162, Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (161, Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (164) from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders.

Compared to the average of the last 15 years, precipitation in the Northern oats and potatoes area was 6% lower, temperature was 1.5℃ higher, RADPAR was 1% higher, leading to a lower BIOMSS (ΔBIOMSS, -3%). CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.83. Crop growth was below average until mid August, when it started to reach close to average levels. Excessive precipitation in August was not conducive to the harvesting of winter crops. But dry and warm weather in September favored the harvesting of summer crops and planting for the next season. Overall, it appears that cereal production can be expected to be lower than the average of the last five years. In addition, the CI for the year was 130%, close to the average. CPI was 0.94.

In the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area, rainfall was close to average, temperatures were 1.5℃ higher, RADPAR was 1% higher, resulting in a 2% higher BIOMSS. The percentage of cultivated land was 100% and VCIx was 0.78. The NDVI development graph reflects the high temperatures and low precipitation in June and July. It subsequently recovered with the recharge of sufficient precipitation in August and reached close to average levels in early September, and then declined to slightly below average levels thereafter. CI of this sub-district was 121%, 8% lower than the average, and the annual crop planting was lower than in previous years. CPI was 0.90.

Compared with the average of the last 15 years, in the Central rye and potatoes area, precipitation was 7% lower, temperature was 1.8°C higher, RADPAR was 1% higher. This led to a 1% lower BIOMSS. CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.80. The crop growth in the zone was similar to the Northern-central area. It was close to average only in late August and early September, but below average thereafter. Overall, the crop growth and the crop yield were below the average. CI of this sub-district was 137%, which was slightly higher by 1% compared to the average. CPI was 0.94.

In the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, precipitation was 7% lower, temperature was 1.8°C higher, RADPAR was 2% higher, resulting in a 1% higher BIOMSS as compared to the 15YA. CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.88. Benefiting from sufficient water and favorable temperatures in the previous monitoring period, crop growth in the current monitoring period was close to average, and by the end of the monitoring period, crop growth was above average. Overall, the crop growth was normal. CI of this sub-district was 151%, which was 6% higher than the average. CPI was 1.01.

Figure 3.37 Poland’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles 

  (g) Temperature profiles

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

图.X Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table 3.66 Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2023

Table 3.67 Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023