The reporting period includes the harvest of wheat (which started in July), the sowing of the 2023-24 winter wheat (which started in September) and also the harvest of maize and other summer crops in September. Overall, crop conditions were not good. Rainfall was below the 15YA by 41%, TEMP was above average by 2.5℃, whereas RADPAR was a bit higher than average  (ΔRADPAR +5%) and BIOMSS was below average (ΔBIOMSS -12%). The nationwide NDVI profile shows that crop conditions were lower than average during the whole reporting period. Compared with the same period of last year, the crop conditions were better in July and early August only. The temperature fluctuated around above-average levels, and rainfall was below average nearly throughout the whole reporting period. It seems that Romania experienced a more intense drought than last year. Mainly the southeast suffered from unfavorable crop conditions. The CALF of Romania during the reporting period was 94%, 4% lower than average, and the maximum VCI was 0.75, which was relatively low. The cropping intensity was 125 and 3% higher than average.  According to the spatial distribution of VCIx, the southeast regions have lower values (<0.5), indicating a very bad situation for crops. The NDVI pattern profile shows that nearly all regions experienced a sharp decrease in September and October. Hence, production prospects for this important region of Romania are unfavorable. The CPI of Romania's Eastern and Southern Maize, Wheat and Sugar Beet Plains was only 0.77, the lowest among all three subregions. 

Regional analysis

More spatial detail is provided below for three main agro-ecological zones: the Central mixed farming and pasture Carpathian hills (165), the Eastern and southern maize, wheat and sugar beet plains (166), and the Western and central maize, wheat and sugar beet plateau (167).

For the Central mixed farming and pasture Carpathian hills, rainfall decreased by as much as 41% below average while temperature increased by 2.6℃ and radiation increased by 6%, and BIOMSS decreased by 14%. The maximum VCI map shows values above 0.8, with the regional average at 0.88. The NDVI spatial distribution shows that NDVI was below average only in October. As this AEZ occupies only a small fraction of cropland in Romania, a small patch of irrigated land in Transylvania, its fair NDVI cannot represent much of Romania's crop production. The cropping intensity is 135, 18% higher than average.

For the Eastern and Southern maize, wheat and sugar beet plains, rainfall decreased by 53%, temperature increased by 3.0℃, radiation increased by 4% and biomass decreased by 16%. Summer heat and a rainfall deficit induced drought in this region. The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions were largely lower than average, and also worse than during last year's drought conditions.  VCIx value of this region was only 0.70 and according to the distribution map, VCIx values were below 0.5 in some of the central and middle region (counties of Tulcea and Constanta), representing about 14.3% of national cropland. The cropping intensity was 121, 1% lower than the five-year average.

For the Western and central maize, wheat and sugar beet plateau, rainfall was lower than average by 24%, temperature was average (ΔTEMP +1.9℃) and radiation was a bit higher (ΔRADPAR +5%), and biomass decreased by 3%, the smallest in all three sub regions. Spatial NDVI profiles show that crop condition was worse than average during August to October, covering the last growing period of maize. Maximum VCI of this region was 0.82. The VCI spatial distribution was between 0.5 and 1.0.  The cropping intensity was 131, 9% higher than average.

Overall, the widespread lack of rainfall and summer heat had a negative impact on crop conditions, and the production prospects were unfavorable.

Figure 3.38. Romania’s crop condition, July-October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central mixed farming and pasture Carpathian hills (left) and Eastern and southern maize, wheat and sugar beet plains (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western and central maize, wheat and sugar beet plateau)

(h) Time series rainfall profile

(i) Time series temperature profile

Table 3.65 Romania's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2023

Table 3.66 Romania's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023