This monitoring period from July to October is the main time for crop harvest in Russia. Winter crops are harvested from late June to late July and spring crops are harvested from mid-August to late September. The sowing of winter crops begins in October. Therefore, weather conditions during the monitoring period are important for both spring and winter crops.

During the analyzed period, rainfall was mainly close to the 15-year average, except in September when precipitation was below this level, and at the end of October when it exceeded the 15-year maximum.

Temperatures in Russia during the monitoring period from July to August were mainly close to the 15-year average and last year's values except at the beginning of July and October and the end of September when they reached the 15-year maximum.

According to the national CropWatch data, NDVI during the monitoring period was mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year, except in September when it was close to these levels.

Сrop conditions with VCIx above 0.8 are observed in the Central and Black soil regions. VCIx in South and North Caucasus regions ranges from 0.5 to 0.8. The spring crop producing regions (Volga, Urals, Siberia) also showed VCIx ranging from 0.5 to 0.8.  11.5% of the territory (mainly located in Central black soil region) showed clear positive NDVI departure during most of the analysed period except for October. Positive NDVI departure since the middle of August was observed in Eastern, Middle and Western Siberia regions as well as in Ural and western Volga region (28% of the territory). 44% of the territory showed NDVI departure close to 0 (mainly South and North Caucasus regions as well as south-western and northern part of Middle Volga). 16.5 % of the territory located mainly in west-northern part of Middle Volga had negative NDVI departure during the whole analysed period. 

For harvesting winter crops, the situation was favorable in most regions of Russia. The condition of early spring crops and meteorological conditions of the last stages of their development indicate that their yield will be below the 5-year average in almost all the regions. Conditions for sowing winter crops in the 2023/2024 season were close to the average in all regions. 

Regional analysis

South Caucasus

Rainfall and BIOMASS were below the 15-year average by 25% and 12% respectively. Temperature and RADPAR were above the 15-year average by 0.5° C and 3%, respectively. The CALF was by 5% above the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was by 8 % above the 5-year average. The VCIx was 0.8. Crop production index was 1.1, meaning that the crop production situation was better than normal.

Until August NDVI was close to the 5-year average and the level of the previous year then it dropped below the 5-year average but stayed close to the previous year until the middle of September.

Judging by the index values, the yield of winter crops is likely to be lower than in the previous year. Winter crop 2023/2024 sowing and status are below last year's levels.

North Caucasus      

Rainfall and BIOMASS were below the 15-year average by 33% and 10% respectively. Temperature and RADPAR were above the 15-year average by 0.9° C and 3%, respectively. The CALF was by 3% above the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was 5% above the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.77. The crop production index was 1.1, meaning that the crop production situation was better than normal.

Till the middle of August, NDVI was close to the 5-year average and the level of the previous year, then it dropped below these levels.

Summer crop yield can be expected to be close to the last year's level. The yield of winter crops is likely to be lower than in the previous year. Winter crop 2023/2024 sowing and status at the end of the analyzed period was worse than in the previous year due to the dry conditions in late September and early October.

Central Russia

Rainfall and BIOMASS were below the 15-year average by 9% and 5% respectively. Temperature and RADPAR were above the 15-year average by 0.9° C and 2%, respectively. CALF was equal to the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was by 3% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.92. Crop production index was 1 meaning that the crop production situation was normal.

NDVI was mainly below last year's average and the 5-year average except for the period from the middle of August till the beginning of September when it reached both of these levels and in mid-September when NDVI reached the 5-year maximum for that period.

The yield of 2022/2023 winter crop can be expected to be below last year's  and the 5 year average, while the yield of spring and summer crops should be close to the 5-year average. The 2023/2024 winter crops sowing campaign is likely to be close to normal.

Central Black Soil region

Rainfall and temperature were above the 15-year average by 4% and by 0.7° C correspondingly. RADPAR increased by 2% relative to the 15-year average. BIOMASS decreased by 1% relative to the 15-year average. The CALF was similar to the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was by 1% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.92. Crop production index was 1.1, indicating that the crop production situation was better than normal.

In July NDVI was close to the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. Then it increased reaching 5-year maximum until the middle of September when it dropped below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year.

The yield of winter and spring crops is expected to be close to the last year and close to 5-year average. Summer crop yield should be also close the average. The 2023/2024 winter crop sowing campaign is likely to be worse than normal.

Middle Volga

Rainfall and BIOMASS were below the 15-year average by 3% and 1% correspondingly. Temperature was above the 15-year average by 0.8° C. RADPAR was close to the 15-year average. CALF increased by 2% relative to the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was by 2% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.83. Crop production index was 1.

During the analyzed period NDVI stayed mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year.

The yield of winter, spring, and summer crop is expected to be below the last year and 5-year average. The 2023/2024 winter crop germination and establishment is likely to be delayed, due to low soil moisture content.

Ural and western Volga

All agroclimatic indicators were above the 15-year average. Rainfall increased by 25% temperature by 1.3ºC, RADPAR  by 1% and BIOMASS by 16%. CALF increased by 1% relative to the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was by 1% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.85. Crop production index was 1.

Till September NDVI was below the 5-year average and the last year's value, then it stayed at these levels except mid-September and mid-October when it reached 5-year maximum.

The yield of winter, spring, and summer crops is expected to be below last year's and the 5-year average. The 2023/2024 sowing campaign is likely to be better than normal.

Western Siberia

In Western Siberia, rainfall increased by 35% over the 15-year average. Temperature was by 1.6° C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was by 1% below the 15-year average. BIOMASS increased relative to the 15-year average by 21%. CALF was down by 1% relative to the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was by 1% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.86. Crop production index was 1.

NDVI was below last year's value and the 5-year average till mid-August then it increased reaching 5-year maximum in September.

There are very few winter crops in this region. According to the NDVI graph, the yield of spring and summer crops is expected to be slightly below the 5-year average and below the level of the previous year.

Middle Siberia

Rainfall and BIOMASS were below the 15-year average by 15% and 7% correspondingly. Temperature and RADPAR were above the 15-year average by 1.7° C and 1%, respectively. CALF decreased by 1% relative to the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was by 1 % below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.88. Crop production index was 1.

NDVI was below last year's value and the 5-year average till mid-August then it increased, reaching these two levels.

According to the charts, the yield of spring, and summer crops is expected to be below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year.

Eastern Siberia

Rainfall and BIOMASS were below the 15-year average by 21% and 8% correspondingly. Temperature and RADPAR were above the 15-year average by 1.4° C and 1%, respectively. The CALF was similar to the 5-year average. Cropping intensity was by 3% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.97. Crop production index was 1.

NDVI was close to the 5-year average and the last year's value unti September when it improved and reached the 5-year maximum dropping below the level of the previous year in October.

According to the graphs, the spring and summer crop yield is expected to be close to the 5-year average.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central Chernozemic region)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)               Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(h) Rainfall index

(i)               Temperature index 

Table 1. Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 15YA. July - October 2023

Table 2. Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 5YA. July-October 2023