The current monitoring period covers the growth period of maize until its harvest in September and October.  Winter wheat was harvested in July.  Sowing of the new winter wheat crop started in September. A rainfall deficit was observed at the national level (RAIN, 158 mm, -22%). Temperatures were above average by 1.9ºC and radiation was 5% higher than the 15YA. Based on above agroclimatic indicators, CropWatch predicted the potential biomass would be 6% lower than usual (BIOMSS, 580 g DM/m²). CALF and the cropping intensity attained average levels of 0.96 and 124, respectively. The VCIx reached a high value of 0.86, indicating that lower rainfall did not adversely affect the crops. 

Remote sensing based national level crop condition development profile showed NDVI was close to or marginally higher than the 5YA before October, confirmed by NDVI spatial patterns. The NDVI of 68.2% cropped area showed some negative departures in October. VCIx distribution suggested crop conditions (VCIx below 0.5) were not favorable in southern Ukraine, such as Odessa, Zaporizhia, Kherson and Crimea, i.e., the frontline of the Russia-Ukraine War. 

In summary, the rainfall deficit started in September, and thus had a limited impact on crop growth, as can be seen in the NDVI development curves. Therefore, the overall situation can be assessed as normal, apart from the war affected production regions in the south-east. 

Above average rainfall in the second half of October helped with the germination and establishment of the winter cereals.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (195) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Eastern Carpathian hills (196) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts; Northern wheat area (197) with Rivne and Southern wheat and maize area (198) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

All four AEZs experienced similar patterns of agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, which could be characterized as drier (negative rainfall departures ranging from -17 to -28%) and warmer temperatures ranging from 1.6 to 2.2°C.  Solar radiation was above average by 5 to 6%. As a result of the rainfall deficit, potential biomass was predicted to be 4 to 7% lower than 15YA.  CALF was high, ranging from 0.9 to 1 and VCIx ranged from 0.8 to 0.91. The factors indicate general good crop condition. However, it was noticed that NDVI based development curves were below 5YA starting in October, except for Eastern Carpathian hills, which might be attributed to the lack of rain in September. Crop Intensity in Eastern Carpathian hills was close to average. In Central wheat area and Northern wheat area, crop intensities  were below average (-1% and -4%, respectively), while it was above average in Southern wheat and maize area (+6%).  

Figure 3.43 Ukraine's crop condition, July – October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

Table 3.78 Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  July – October 2023

Table 3.79 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2023