This reporting period from July to October 2023 covers the flowering, grain filling, and maturity stages of maize, rice, and soybeans, and the harvest of spring wheat in the United States. Overall, crop growth conditions were slightly below average.

At the national level, the agro-climatic indicators show below-average rainfall (ΔRAIN -22%) and radiation (ΔRADPAR -1%). Together with above-average temperatures (ΔTEMP +0.8ºC) these indicators resulted in below-average potential biomass (ΔBIOMASS -10%). The rainfall time series shows dry weather during the monitoring period, with a significant deficit from mid-August to late September, adversely affecting crop growth. The temperature time series indicates a noticeable increase in temperature from mid-July to mid-September, fluctuating near the 15-year maximum, and returning to normal levels by October. The Great Plains, Southeast, and Lower Mississippi experienced widespread rainfall deficits. States with severe rainfall shortages include Kansas (-40%), Nebraska (-38%), Texas (-37%), Montana (-18%), North Dakota (-15%), and Missouri (-15%). In these areas with insufficient rainfall, temperatures were at least 0.3°C higher than the average. The eastern part of the Corn Belt generally had better agricultural meteorological conditions, with rainfall levels close to average in Indiana (-6%), Illinois (+3%), Ohio (-5%), and Michigan (+6%).

Spatial differences in agro-climatic conditions led to diverse agronomic conditions. The overall Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) nationwide reached 0.87. Poor crop conditions (VCIx < 0.5) occurred in some areas of the Southern Plains and Northwest due to water stress, while crop conditions in other regions were generally normal (VCIx > 0.8). NDVI anomaly clusters and their curves also indicated a strong spatial variability in crop conditions. The Corn Belt exhibited good crop growth conditions, while the northern plain experienced suboptimal conditions at the end of August due to drought. The Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi encountered high temperatures and drought after August, resulting in crop growth below the average level. Nationally, the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was higher than the five-year average (+2%), in particular in the Northern Plains, where CALF was significantly higher than the five-year average (+12%). The Crop Production Index was 1.0, indicating a normal crop production situation in the United States during the reporting period.

In short, CropWatch assessed diverse crop conditions and overall close average production in the United States. 

Figure 3.43 United States crop condition, July to October 2023

(a). Phenology of United States from July to October 2023

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c). Time series rainfall profile

(d). Time series temperature profile

(e). Maximum VCI

(f). Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Regional Analysis

The crop conditions of the Corn Belt (202), Northern Plains (204), Lower Mississippi (203), Northwest (206), Southern Plains (207), and Southeast region (208) are summarized below.

(1) Corn Belt (202)

The Corn Belt covers Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan, and it is the most important maize and soybean-producing region in the United States. During this reporting period, dryer than usual weather prevailed in the western Corn Belt, with rainfall (ΔRAIN -9%) and radiation (ΔRADPAR -4%) below average, and temperatures above average (ΔTEMP +0.7°C). In the preceding monitoring period (April to July), the Corn Belt also experienced overall dry conditions, leading to a notable 4% decrease in the current potential cumulative biomass compared to the 15-year average. NDVI development curve shows that from late August to late September, continuous below-average rainfall and temperatures nearing the 15-year maximum resulted in slightly below average vegetation cover during those months.  Throughout the monitoring period, the CALF was 100%, VCIx reached 0.93, and the Crop Production Index was 0.99, confirming that crop growth conditions were generally normal. CropWatch assesses that crop yields in the Corn Belt are close to average.

(g). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series rainfall profile and temperature profile (The Corn Belt)

(2) Northern Plains (204)

The Northern Plains, which includes parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska, is the largest spring wheat-growing region and an important corn-producing region in the United States. The reporting period was characterized by dry and warm weather, with rainfall (ΔRAIN -24%) and radiation (ΔRADPAR -2%) below average, and temperatures above average (ΔTEMP +0.4°C). This resulted in a potential biomass estimate that was 12% below the average level (ΔBIOMASS -12%). The rainfall profile indicates a severe lack of rainfall from July to August in the Northern Plains. However, during the previous monitoring period (May to June), rainfall was significantly above average. Hence, stored soil moisture alleviated the impact of insufficient rainfall on crop growth in the current monitoring period. After August, rainfall returned to normal levels, prompting crop growth conditions to surpass the average level. The cropped arable land fraction was 91%, exceeding the average level by 12%. The VCIx was 0.86, and the Crop Production Index was 1.06, indicating favorable crop production. In conclusion, CropWatch estimates that crop production in this region was above average due to a significant increase in CALF.

(h). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series rainfall profile and temperature profile (The Northern Plains)

(3) Lower Mississippi (203)

It is the biggest rice-producing area and an important soybean producing zone in the United States. It includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. The rainfall (ΔRAIN -42%) was far below average, temperatures were above average (ΔTEMP +1.7°C), and radiation was average (ΔRADPAR +0%). This combined effect resulted in a potential biomass (ΔBIOMASS -18%) below the average level. Starting from mid-July, rainfall remained consistently below average throughout the monitoring period, and temperatures remained above average, significantly impacting crops during the harvesting stage. The NDVI curve shows that crop growth gradually fell below average starting in August. The average VCIx was 0.88, the CALF was 100%, and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.98, indicating below average crop production conditions. In conclusion, CropWatch estimates that crop production in this region was below average.

(i). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series rainfall profile, and temperature profile (The Lower Mississippi)

(4) Northwest (206)

The Northwest region is the second-largest winter wheat production area in the United States and is also important for spring wheat production. During the monitoring period, winter wheat reached maturity, with the majority harvested before August. In the reporting period, rainfall and radiation were slightly below average (ΔRAIN -6%, ΔRADPAR -4%), while temperatures were above average (ΔTEMP +0.2°C), resulting in an above average estimate for potential biomass production (ΔBIOMASS +2%). The NDVI curve shows that the NDVI remained below average until August. As emphasized in the previous bulletin, even though the agro-meteorological conditions were favorable in the previous period, the crop conditions never reached the average level due to the delay in the sowing of the spring wheat crop. Below-average crop conditions persisted until the crop was ripe for harvest. Compared to 5YA, CALF (71%) was 2% higher than average and the VCIx index was 0.83, indicating average crop growth during this period. In short, CropWatch expects below average crop production in the region.

(j). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series rainfall profile and temperature profile (The Northwest )

(5) Southern Plains (207)

The Southern Plains is the most important region for winter wheat, sorghum, and cotton production, and it includes Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and eastern Colorado. Agri-climatic indicators show below-average rainfall (ΔRAIN -31%), while temperatures and radiation were above average (ΔTEMP +1.6°C, ΔRADPAR +1%). These factors resulted in below average potential biomass (ΔBIOMASS -16%). During the monitoring period, the NDVI curve was below the five-year average, indicating poor crop conditions. Starting from late July, a significant reduction in rainfall and temperatures reaching the 15-year maximum led to a gradual deterioration in crop growth conditions. The cropped arable land fraction was 87%, which was 5% higher than the five-year average. The VCIx was only 0.79, indicating unfavorable crop production conditions. In summary, CropWatch estimates that crop production in the Southern Plains was below average.

(k). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series rainfall profile, and temperature profile (The Southern Plains)

(6) Southeast region (208)

The Southeast is an important cotton and corn-producing region. It includes the states of Georgia, Alabama, and North Carolina. During the reporting period, rainfall was below average (ΔRAIN -32%), while temperatures and radiation were above average (ΔTEMP +0.8°C, ΔRADPAR +2%), leading to a below average estimate of potential biomass  (ΔBIOMASS -12%). The NDVI curve indicates that crop conditions were close to the five-year average. The VCIx was 0.87 and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.97. In summary, CropWatch estimates that crop production in the region was slightly below average.

(l). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Time series rainfall profile and temperature profile (The Southeast region)

3.78.United States' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2023

Table 3.79. United States’agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure,  July-October 2023