This monitoring period from July to October 2023 covers the growing and harvesting stage of maize, as well as the harvest stage (July and August) and the sowing stage (September and October) of wheat. Summer precipitation is minimal, as rain falls mostly during winter. Most of the summer crops are irrigated. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, rainfall (RAIN) and temperature (TEMP) were slightly above average (ΔRAIN +12% and ΔTEMP +0.1°C), while radiation (RADPAR) was slightly below average (ΔRADPAR -2%) compared to the 15-year average (15YA). The precipitation was significantly above the 15YA in late August. The temperature was generally close to the 15YA, but was slightly higher than average in late July and late October. The biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) slightly increased by 1% compared to the 15YA. At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicates that besides early September and late October, when it was close to the 5YA, the crop conditions were significantly below the five-year average.

The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.73. The areas with low VCIx values were mainly in the southwest of the Eastern hilly cereals zone and the northwest of the Aral Sea cotton zone. The agricultural areas with maximum VCI indices above 0.8 were in Andijon Province, Namangan Province, Ferghana Province, Khorezm Province, and the eastern part of Bukhoro Province. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 56%) decreased by 6% compared to its 5YA. The cropping intensity was 113%, which had slightly increased by 3%. As shown in the NDVI cluster graph and profiles, only about 18.2% of arable land (light green) had above-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period, mainly in the central and east areas of the Eastern hilly cereals, and along the Amu Darya River. 25.7% of arable land (red), distributed discretely in the Eastern hilly cereals, had average crop conditions in most of the monitoring period, but unfavorable conditions in late September and early October. 23.2% of arable land (orange) had unfavorable conditions during July to August, but turned to better crop conditions than average in September and October. The other 32.9% of arable land (blue and dark green) had unfavorable crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.90. Prospects for crop production in Uzbekistan are estimated to be close to normal.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Uzbekistan: Central region with sparse crops (210), Eastern hilly cereals zone (211), and Aral Sea cotton zone (212).

In the Central region with sparse crops, the NDVI development graph shows that the crop conditions were generally below average. RAIN and RADPAR were below average (ΔRAIN -15% andΔRADPAR -3%), while TEMP was above average (ΔTEMP +0.7°C). The VCIx was 0.82 and BIOMSS slightly decreased by 2% compared to the 15YA. The CALF was 77%, which was close to the 5YA (just slightly decreased by 1%). The cropping intensity was equal to the 5YA. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows that the crop conditions were unfavorable in July and then slightly better than average during the rest of the monitoring period. However, it is noteworthy that the crop condition in this AEZ had little impact on the crop production of Uzbekistan since the crop fields are sparse in the region.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, RADPAR was slightly below average (ΔRADPAR -2%), while RAIN and TEMP were above average (ΔRAIN +11% and ΔTEMP +0.1°C). The CALF was 56%. It decreased by 5% compared to the 5YA. The average VCIx index was 0.74. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows that the crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA in this monitoring period, except early September, when it was close to the 5YA. The BIOMSS was the same as the average. The cropping intensity increased by 5% compared to the 5YA. The prospects for crop production were average.

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, RADPAR was below average (ΔRADPAR -4%), while RAIN and TEMP were above average (ΔRAIN +57% andΔTEMP +0.7°C). These agroclimatic conditions resulted in a slight increase in BIOMSS (+3%) in this AEZ. The CALF (58%) decreased by 11% compared to the 5YA and the maximum VCI index was 0.71. The cropping intensity was equal to the 5YA. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows that the crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA in this monitoring period, except in late October. The agro-climatic conditions of this region were slightly unfavorable.

Figure 3.47 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                    (g) Temperature profiles       

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Central region with sparse crops (left) and Eastern hilly cereals region (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Aral Sea cotton region

Table 3.83 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023

Table 3.84 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2023