In South Africa, wheat is the main crop being produced during this monitoring period. In the east, maize sowing started in October. Soybean planting also started in October.

At the national level, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that radiation and temperature were slightly below the 15-year average (RADPAR -1%; TEMP -0.1℃), while rainfall was above the average by 3%, respectively. All these indicators led to a decrease in potential BIOMASS by 1%.

The maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was only 0.68, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased slightly by 4% compared with the last 5 years. According to the VCIx, conditions in the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas were worse than in the other three regions. As to the spatial distribution of the NDVI cluster map, crop conditions on about 15% of the cropland were below average during the whole monitoring period, 65.9% were on average from July to August, most in North West and Free State Province. About 36.9% of the cropland, most located in Mpumalanga, Western Cape and Eastern Cape Province were above average starting in September. Overall, crop conditions were slightly above average, especially in the Mediterranean zone, which is the main wheat production region of South Africa.

Regional analysis

In the Arid and desert zones, RAIN (-1%) ,TEMP (-0.1°C) and RADPAR (-2%) were slightly below average. BIOMSS decreased slightly by 5%. CALF increased significantly (+60%) and VCIx was 0.88. The cropping intensity was average (112%, -5%), indicating cropland utilization rate was normal. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicates that the crop conditions were generally above the 5-year average and even near the 5-year maximum in July and August. Crop production is expected to be favorable.

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the TEMP (-0.1°C) and RADPAR (-1%) were below average. But the RAIN increased by 4%.Under these conditions, BIOMSS was slightly below the 15-year average (-1%). CALF was 83% and VCIx was 0.81. The cropping intensity was average (106%, -1%), indicating cropland utilization rate was normal. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI also indicates favorable crop conditions.

In the Mediterranean zone, the major wheat production region, the TEMP decreased by 0.9°C and RADPAR was slightly below average (-1%). RAIN was above the average(+4%). The BIOMSS was decreased by 4%. CALF increased slightly (92%, 6%) and VCIx was 0.94. The cropping intensity was average (111%, +7%), indicating cropland utilization rate was normal. According to the crop condition development graph, the crop conditions were generally above the 5-year average and even near the 5-year maximum in most months. Crop conditions were generally favorable.

In the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, the TEMP was average and RADPAR (-1%) was below average. But the RAIN increased by 4%. Under these conditions, BIOMSS was slightly below the 15-year average (-1%). CALF was 17% and VCIx was 0.62. The cropping intensity was average (102%, 0%), indicating that the cropland utilization rate was normal. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that the NDVI was near the 5-year average for all the period. In all, the crop conditions were favorable.

Figure 3.45 South Africa's crop condition, July - October 2023

(a) Phenology of the main Crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Time series rainfall pofile

(e) Time series temperature pofile

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA        (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Arid desert (left) and Humid sub-tropical (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI semiarid steppe (left)  and Mediterranean (right)

Table3.81 South Africa's agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2023