This reporting period (July to October, 2023) covers the dry season. The major crops cultivated during this period include winter wheat (July - September), sugarcane and horticultural crops. The onset of the rainy season occurs in November for the Northern parts of the country and later in December for the rest of the country. The observed rainfall during this monitoring period was near the 15YA (RAIN +1%). It fell mainly in October. The temperature increased (TEMP +0.7℃) while radiation decreased (RADPAR -2%). The potential biomass production increased (BIOMSS +3%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was at 35% with a VCIx value of 0.68 and the resulting crop intensity increased (+2%). These conditions indicated a dry environment with extreme soil moisture deficits unless crop production is supported by irrigation infrastructure systems. 

Regional Analysis 

Zambia is subdivided into four main crop production zones, namely the Northern high rainfall zone (226), Central-eastern and southern plateau (227), Western semi-arid plain (228) and Luangwa Zambezi rift valley (225). 

Northern high rainfall zone (226): Predominantly receives higher rainfall, had a decrease in rainfall (RAIN -19%), and warmer temperatures (TEMP +0.6℃), decreased radiation (RADPAR -1%), and the increased biomass production (BIOMASS +1%). The observed cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was at 77% and VCIx was at 0.82.

Central-Eastern and Southern plateau (227): This region is the grain belt for the country, the region received increased rainfall (RAIN +31%), and decreased biomass production (BIOMASS -1%). Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) of the region was at 30%, while VCIx was 0.72. 

Western semi-arid plain (228): This region received  increased rainfall (RAIN +53%), biomass production (BIOMASS +4%) however the Cropped arable land fraction decreased (CALF -25%).

Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley (225: This is the driest zone in the country, the rainfall increased (RAIN +57%), temperature increased (TEMP +0.8℃), radiation decreased (RADPAR -3%) however potential biomass production increased (BIOMASS +4%). CALF was at 15% and VCIx at 0.56. 

At the regional level, the Crop Production Index (CPI) was below 1.0 except for Central-Eastern and Southern plateau (CPI = 1.17), the grain basket of the country.

Table 1: Country’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and  departure from 15YA, July – Oct. 2023

Table 2: Country’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure  from 5YA, July – Oct. 2023

Figure A: Crop Phenology

Figure B: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure C: Time series rainfall pofile

Figure D: Time series temperature profile

Figure E: Maximum VCI

Figure F: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles