This reporting period covers the key growing period of maize and potatoes,  the harvesting period of maize, and the sowing period of wheat in Lebanon. Maize reached maturity in August and potatoes reached maturity in October, the planting of wheat started in October. Based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in Lebanon were generally below average from July to August, then progressively close to average, equal to average, and slightly above average from September to October. 

Lebanon experienced a significant and severe precipitation deficit  (ΔRAIN -47%),  temperature was above average (ΔTEMP +1.1°C), and radiation was below average (RADPAR -2%). As shown in the time series rainfall profile for Lebanon, precipitation was below average throughout this monitoring period. Most of the region experienced warmer-than-usual conditions during this reporting period, or even above the maximum for the past 15 years, except for late-October, when it was below average. Due to severe rain deficit and lower solar radiation, the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) was estimated to decrease slightly by 2% nationwide as compared to the fifteen-year average.

As shown in the crop condition development graph and the NDVI profiles at the national level, NDVI values were below average from July to August, then progressively close to average, equal to average, and  slightly above average from September to October.These observations are confirmed by the clustered NDVI profiles: 42.6% of regional NDVI values were below average before October, and only 17.5% of regions NDVI values were significantly above average throughout this monitoring period. These observations are confirmed by lower VCI values shown in the maximum VCI map. These negative departures were due to below-average rainfall.  Overall VCIx was 0.76. CALF during the reporting period was 29%, which was the same as average compared to the recent five-year average.

Generally, the agronomic indicators show below or close to average conditions for most summer crops in Lebanon. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions are adopted for Lebanon. They include: Bekaa Valley Zone (231), Western Coastal Zone (230) and Mountainous region (229). 

Bekaa Valley Zone is the major crop production zone of Lebanon. Temperature (+1.3°C) was significantly above average in this region, and even higher than the maximum of the last 15 years. Total precipitation was significantly below average (ΔRAIN -48%), and radiation was also below average (RADPAR -3%). As a result, BIOMSS is expected to decrease by 3% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were below average until September and then average from September to October. The area has a low CALF (9%). It decreased by 3% as compared to the average, and the VCIx was 0.73. Cropping intensity reached 106%, which was up by 1% compared to the five-year-average across this region.

Western Coastal Zone is another major crop zone. Rainfall and RADPAR were both below average (ΔRAIN -15%;  RADPAR -3%), but temperature ( ΔTEMP +0.2°C) was slightly above average, which led to a decrease in BIOMSS by 4%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average from July to September and then above average in October. The CALF was 54%, an increase by 1% as compared to the average, and the VCIx was 0.76. Cropping intensity reached 106%, which was up by 2% compared to the five-year-average across this region.

On average, a large reduction in rainfall was recorded for the Mountainous region (ΔRAIN -47%), with above-average temperature (+1.1°C) and below-average radiation (RADPAR -2%). Compared to the fifteen-year average, BIOMSS decreased by 7%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below or close to average until September and then average from September to October. The area had an unchanged CALF (29%), as well as a favorable VCIx (0.76). Cropping intensity reached 104%, which was up by 2% compared to the five-year-average across this region.

Figure XXX. Lebanon’s crop condition, July-October 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops in Lebanon

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the July-October 2023 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(c) Maximum VCI for the July-October 2023 period

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns for Lebanon up to October 2023 according to local cropping patterns and as compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

(e) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) of Lebanon comparing the July-October 2023 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(f) Bekaa Valley Zone crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)

(g) Western Coastal Zone crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)

(h) Mountainous region crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)

Table XXX Lebanon agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2023

Table XXX. Lebanon agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, July-October 2023