After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of major cereals and soybean production as well as of summer crops production and total annual outputs at provincial and national levels (4.2) and describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of China: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 describes the trade prospects of major cereals and soybean. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

From the perspectives of agroclimatic indicators, the overall conditions were generally fair in China from July to October 2023. Temperature and rainfall were above average by 0.9°C and 7%, respectively, while radiation was at average. As a result, the potential biomass was 4% larger than the 15YA. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was quite high at 0.92. The national Cropping Intensity (CI) was 1% above the 5YA. Moreover, the mean of CALF for the whole country was at an average level compared to the 5YA. The national mean value of Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.98, suggesting that the crop production status was at a normal level. 

During the monitoring period, all of the main agricultural regions of China recorded absolute rainfall anomalies less than 20%, with the largest positive rainfall departure of 17% (North East China) and the largest negative rainfall departure of 5% (Loess region). According to the spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, dark green and light green marked regions (95.5% of the cultivated regions) had around average rainfall during the whole monitoring period. It is worth noting that 4.5% of the cultivated regions (marked in blue) experienced positive rainfall departure larger than 250 mm/dekad in early September, mainly located in Guangdong, Taiwan, and some parts of Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Fujian. Although the overall data shows that rainfall conditions were quite favorable, extreme rainfall in some areas caused flooding and exerted a negative impact on the crops. For the AEZ of Northeast China, the affected areas of maize, rice, and soybeans were 323,000, 138,000, and 51,000 hectares, respectively. 

All of the main agricultural regions in China recorded above-average temperatures ranging from +0.6℃ (Lower Yangtze region) to +1.6℃ (Huanghuaihai and Loess region). The map of the spatial distribution of temperature profiles indicates that temperatures fluctuated during the monitoring period as follows: 52.6% of the cultivated regions experienced relatively smooth temperature variation, while other regions had some fluctuations in temperature during certain periods. 33.1% of the cultivated regions had larger-than-average temperatures throughout the monitoring period and experienced positive temperature departure larger than +3.0℃ in early September and late October, mainly located in Huaihuaihai, Loess region and some parts of Inner Mongolia and North East China. The remaining 14.3% of the cultivated regions had mainly average to above-average temperatures during the whole monitoring period, with negative departures in the middle of July and early August, mainly in North East China.

As for RADPAR, all of the main agricultural regions in China received around-average radiation as compared to the 15YA, with the absolute departure being less than 5%. With respect to BIOMSS, only Loess region (-1%) and Inner Mongolia (-2%) had small negative departures, while all the others had positive BIOMSS departures with a range from +3% (South West China) to +7% (North East China). As can be seen in the spatial distribution of potential biomass departure from the 15YA, most parts of China had positive departures, but there were areas with negative departures, mainly concentrated in some parts of the Loess region and Inner Mongolia, as confirmed by the statistics at the AEZ level.

The VCIx values were all greater than or equal to 0.87 in all of the main producing regions of China, with values between 0.87 (Inner Mongolia) and 0.96 (North East China). Nationally, CALF was at or around average in all AEZs of China as compared to the 5YA. Among them, Inner Mongolia (-1%) and Loess region (-3%) recorded slightly below-average CALF, while all the remaining regions showed an average CALF. When it comes to the cropping intensity (CI), values of 200% are mainly concentrated in the North China Plain with the wheat-maize rotation system, while values of 300% are sparsely distributed in Southwestern and Southern China. The largest CI departure occurred in Southwest China (+13%), and the CI in other AEZs was near the 5YA values. High VHIn values were widely distributed, suggesting that almost no crops suffered from water stress. Regarding CPI values for AEZs, the lower Yangtze region had the biggest CPI value at 1.02, while Inner Mongolia had the smallest CPI value at 0.92.

Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, July to Oct 2023, departure from 15YA and 5YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, July to Oct 2023

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, July to Oct 2023

Figure 4.4 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, July to Oct 2023

Figure 4.5 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, July to Oct 2023

Figure 4.6 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, July to Oct 2023

Figure 4.7 China minimum Vegetation Health Index (VHIn), by pixel, July to Oct 2023

Figure 4.8 China Cropping Intensity (CI), by pixel, July to Oct 2023