This report covers the 2023 the major grain and oil crops' sowing areas and growth in China. The analysis is based on multi-source remote sensing data from FY-3, ESA's Sentinel-1/2, and the U.S. Landsat 8 satellites. Additionally, nearly one million ground-measured sample points across major agricultural areas in Northeast, North, Northwest, and Southwest China were used.

This monitoring combined national data on 10-meter resolution cultivated land, agricultural meteorological information, and crop yield models. The production of maize, rice, soybeans, and summer crops, along with China's total annual grain output for 2023, were reviewed and confirmed.

（1）Annual food production

In 2023, China's total grain output reached 652.046 million tons, a 0.8% increase, adding 5.34 million tons from the previous year. The rise is attributed to expanded summer crop areas, including maize. Summer crops, such as maize, mid-season and late rice, spring wheat, soybean, coarse grains, and tubers, totaled 482.247 million tons. This is a 1.1% increase, or 5.31 million tons more than in 2022.

Major grain-producing provinces like Heilongjiang, Henan, Shandong, Jilin, and Anhui reported significant production gains. Their output exceeded 2022 levels, especially in Heilongjiang and Jilin. The Yangtze River basin provinces, like Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, and Chongqing, improved greatly compared to the extreme weather of 2022. Their autumn and annual grain yields increased. Notably, summer crops in Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hubei increased by over 3% year-on-year.

However, the northwest region and the Loess Plateau saw a decrease in autumn and total grain production. In South China, frequent typhoons and heavy rains led to reduced grain yields in provinces such as Guangdong and Guangxi.

Table 4.1 China's Summer Crops and Annual Grain Production and Variation in 2023

（2）Forecasts of production of staple food and oil crops

In 2023, China's major grain and oilseed crops (maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans) produced 580.623 million tons. This was a 5.55 million-ton increase, a growth of 1.0%. Maize, rice, and wheat saw a year-on-year increase, while soybeans decreased (Table 4.2).

Maize: Production reached 232.757 million tons, up by 5.57 million tons, a 2.4% increase. The main reason was a 3.0% increase in planting area, adding 1.234 million hectares. Heilongjiang and Jilin saw the most significant increases, adding 564,000 hectares and 522,000 hectares, respectively. Flooding in Hebei, Heilongjiang, and Jilin negatively impacted production. National average yield per ha decreased by 0.6%. In early August, Typhoon Kanu caused flooding in the Songhua River basin, affecting 323,000 hectares of maize in central and southern Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin.

Maize production varied across major provinces. Heilongjiang, Jilin, Anhui, Henan, and Chongqing increased by 9.2%, 11.3%, 3.6%, 2.1%, and 1.9%, respectively. Other provinces saw decreases, with notable declines in Shanxi and Liaoning, mainly due to reduced planting area and yield.

Soybeans: China's total production was 17.169 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons or 5.6%. The decrease was mainly due to reduced planting area, linked to maize-soybean rotation and lower comparative benefits of planting soybeans over maize in the Northeast.

The national soybean planting area was 9.233 million hectares, the second largest since the Soybean Revitalization Plan. It decreased by 618 thousand hectares, a 6.3% reduction. The average yield increased by 0.7%. In major producing areas, Heilongjiang reduced its area by 320 thousand hectares, a 6.4% decrease, leading to a 440,000 ton drop in production. Jiangsu, Jilin, and Liaoning increased production by 0.8%, 0.7%, and 5.1%, respectively. 

Table 4.2 China's 2023 Maize, Rice, Wheat, and Soybean Production and Variance

Rice: China's total rice production in 2023 was 195.813 million tons, an increase of 0.2% or 0.48 million tons from the previous year. Early rice produced 27.393 million tons, down 0.6% or 150,000 tons. semi-late rice/single rice production was 134.06 million tons, up by 310,000 tons or 0.2%. Late rice production was 34.359 million tons, a 1.0% or 0.32 million tons increase.

In 2023, the Yangtze River Basin saw better agricultural weather conditions during the middle and late rice growing period compared to 2022. Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang, the main middle and late rice-producing provinces, all achieved increased yields. The Yangtze River Basin’s total rice output increased by 1.51 million tons year-on-year.

In the Northeast's single-season rice area, continuous heavy rains during the flowering period adversely affected pollination and yield formation. This led to a total loss of 138,000 hectares of rice in Heilongjiang and Jilin due to floods. Rice production in Heilongjiang and Jilin decreased by 0.2% and 3.4%, respectively, totaling a reduction of 0.27 million tons.

Table 4.3 China's 2023 Provincial Early, Middle, Late Rice Production and Variance (%)