International trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China

Maize

In the first three quarters, China imported 16.555 million tonnes of maize, a 10.3% decrease from the previous year. The major sources of maize imports were the United States, Ukraine, and Brazil, accounting for 37.5%, 32.2%, and 22.8% of the total imports, respectively.

Rice

In the first three quarters, China imported 2.147 million tonnes of rice, a 57.5% decrease compared to the previous year. The main sources of rice imports were Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, India, and Cambodia, accounting for 39.4%, 20.4%, 14.4%, 11.2%, and 7.4% of the total imports, respectively.

Wheat

The model predicts a 35.2% increase in China's wheat imports and a 4.5% decrease in exports in 2023. With global wheat stocks remaining high and production increasing, the loose supply-demand situation prompts China to actively purchase wheat from Europe and the Americas, leading to a substantial increase in wheat imports in 2023.

Soybean

In the first three quarters, China imported 77.799 million tonnes of soybeans, a 14.4% increase from the previous year. The primary sources of soybean imports were Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, representing 69.6%, 25.5%, and 2.0% of the total imports, respectively.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2023

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2023 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crops will decrease in 2023. The details are as follows:

In 2023, China's maize imports will increase by 11.3%, and exports will reduce by 2.5%. Although global maize production is expected to grow, drought conditions in major producing regions like Brazil, coupled with reduced river levels affecting shipping and increased transportation costs, are expected to impact Brazil's maize exports. The fourth quarter is anticipated to see an increase in maize arrivals from Brazil, contributing to a year-on-year import growth.

In 2023, China's rice import will decrease by 40.1%, and exports will decrease by 3.8% in 2023. Due to India implementing rice export restrictions, international rice prices remain high, leading importers to slow down their procurement pace. It is anticipated that rice imports will continue to decline in the fourth quarter, resulting in a significant year-on-year reduction.

In 2023, China's wheat imports will increase by 35.2%, while exports will decrease by 4.5%. With global wheat stocks remaining high and production increasing, the loose supply-demand situation prompts China to actively purchase wheat from Europe and the Americas, leading to a substantial increase in wheat imports in 2023.

In 2023, China's soybean import will increase by 9.8%, while exports will decrease by 2.7%. Global soybean production is expected to reach a new high, ensuring a plentiful supply. However, the rising risk of transportation disruptions due to persistent drought and conflicts, coupled with an expected decline in domestic soybean production, will significantly increase soybean imports throughout the year.

Figure 4.16 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2023 (%)