Methodological introduction

CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing models combined with CropWatch global agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, as well as meteorological data from over 20,000 meteorological weather stations around the world. The major grain crops (maize, rice, wheat) and soybean production of 47 major producers and exporters are estimated and predicted from January to mid-August 2023. This assessment included remote sensing monitoring and verification of yield for major staple crops (corn, rice, wheat, and soybean) that were either in their growing period or close to harvest.

Remote sensing monitoring indicated that the global production of crops in 2023 reached 2.874 billion tonnes, an increase of approximately 14.14 million tonnes or about 0.50%. Specifically, maize production is projected to reach 1.070 billion tonnes, marking an increase of 24.71 million tonnes or 2.4%. Global rice production is estimated at 753 million tonnes, with a decrease of 1.16 million tonnes or 0.2%. Global wheat production is forecasted to be 733 million tonnes, down by 7.23 million tonnes or 1.0%. Global soybean production is anticipated to reach 318 million tonnes, reflecting a decrease of 1.91 million tonnes or 0.6% (Table 5.1). The Middle East, East Africa, and other arid areas have seen a marked increase in rainfall compared to last year. The drought that has lasted for several years has been alleviated, and the crop condition was better than in previous years. Most of the main agricultural producing countries in Europe generally had favorable agroclimatic conditions, and crop yields were better than those of last year. The southern part of South America, the Maghreb, Spain, and Central Asia have suffered from severe drought, and crop production is unfavorable. In general, the occurrence of extreme events during this period was generally weaker compared to 2022, resulting in a less adverse impact on the production of crops. 

Table 5.1  2023 cereal and soybean production estimates in million tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change in 2023 production when compared with corresponding 2022 values.

Maize: Agroclimatic conditions have been favorable in most of the world's major corn-producing countries in 2023, with global maize production increasing by 24.71 million tonnes, the largest increase in production in a decade. The United States, China, and Brazil are the world's main maize producers. Among them, the United States encountered cooler than usual spring temperatures during the planting period, coupled with lower rainfall in late May, affecting germination and early growth and resulting in a delayed growth period. However, the improved agroclimatic conditions since June in the main producing regions promoted the growth and development of maize and yield formation. The generally normal weather conditions in its main producing areas resulted in a production increase to 376.38 million tonnes, a significant increase of 12.78 million tonnes or 3.5%. China's maize production increased 2.4% due to the expansion of the maize cultivation area. Brazil experienced a decrease in the first-season maize and an expansion of planting areas for the second-season maize, boosting total maize production to reach 100.68 million tonnes, an increase of 9.37 million tonnes or 10.3%. Compared to the extremely hot and dry conditions in 2022, Europe's important maize-producing countries generally enjoyed favorable weather conditions in 2023. Benefitting from overall abundant rainfall, countries such as Russia, France, Ukraine, Romania, Hungary, and Italy had yield increases by 3.8%, 0.2%, 2.7%, 4.1%, 11.8%, and 7.8%, respectively.  Due to the recession of the La Niña, Kenya, located in the Horn of Africa, experienced a significantly increased rainfall, which compensated for the soil moisture deficit caused by the previous drought, and its maize production increased by 19.6%, which was the largest increase in production among maize-producing countries. Ethiopia's maize production increased by 2.6%. Argentina was affected by continuous drought, resulting in a substantial reduction in maize production by 9.6%. Although rainfall since late March returned to normal. However, by then maize was already close to maturity. India's maize production was negatively affected by flooding, leading to decreased cultivation areas and yields, projecting a reduction of 9.7%.

Rice: Most rice-producing countries experienced a slight decrease in rice production, resulting in global rice production of 753.41 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.16 million tonnes or 0.2%. As the world's largest rice producer, China is expected at 195.813 million tonnes, a slight increase of 0.2%, mainly due to the recovery from the extremely high temperature and drought in the Yangtze River Basin, prompting an increase in production of mid- and late-stage rice. The Philippines, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar were affected by the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. Rice yields were all down slightly, with production decreasing by 0.7%, 1.6%, 1.7%, 1.8%, 1.8%, 2.0% and 4.9%, respectively. Affected by flooding, India's rice production was down slightly by 0.8%. In the southern hemisphere, in Brazil, Argentina, and Angola, due to the shrinkage of rice planting areas, rice production fell by 1.9%, 3.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. In July, excessive rainfall occurred in Pakistan, leading to localized flooding, but the scope of the impact of flooding was significantly smaller than in 2022. Pakistan's rice production increased by 11.7%, Cambodia, the United States, and Nigeria saw varying degrees of increased rice production of 5.4%, 5.7%, and 12.1%, respectively. Overall, the global rice production remained stable.

Wheat: The production for major wheat-producing countries varied significantly. The total wheat production in the main producing countries was almost stable, but the total production of other countries has decreased by a large margin. The global wheat production in 2023 is estimated to be 732.84 million tonnes, down by 1.0%. It has been reduced for the third consecutive year and reached the lowest in the past five years. Wheat in the Northern Hemisphere countries has been harvested from June to August, and the production is in line with the August 2023 monitoring results. Overall, wheat production recovered in East Africa and the Middle East and generally recovered slightly in Europe, while wheat production decreased in many Central Asian countries. In the Southern Hemisphere, affected by lower rainfall, both wheat cultivated area and yields in Australia fell sharply, with production declining by 26.2%; on the contrary, agroclimatic conditions in wheat-producing areas of Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa were generally normal, and wheat yields increased, prompting an increase in wheat production by 6.9%, 6.2%, and 2.8%, respectively.

Soybean: Global soybean production in 2023 is expected to be 318.13 million tonnes, a reduction of 0.6%. The southern hemisphere soybean production increased, but the difference between the production in Brazil and Argentina is stark. Soybean production in Argentina was significantly reduced by 18.9%, while Brazil increased by 12.1%, and the cumulative production of soybeans in the two countries increased by 1.71 million tonnes. The northern hemisphere soybean acreage declined, resulting in an overall reduction in soybean production. The United States witnessed favorable agro-climatic conditions during the soybean growth period, with suitable moisture and temperature contributing to favorable yields, and agroclimatic conditions were generally favorable until the crops had reached maturity in the main producing areas. However due to the reduction in cultivated area, production decreased by 1.2%. China's soybean acreage shrinkage led to a 5.6% decrease in soybean production; India's and Canada's soybean production increased by 3.8% and 0.6%, respectively, while Russia's soybean production decreased slightly by 0.4%. The cumulative decrease of 2.82 million tonnes in soybean production in the Northern Hemisphere exceeded the increase in the Southern Hemisphere, resulting in a global soybean production decrease of 0.6%.