Introduction

This section covers the July-October 2023 disaster events worldwide. Among others, this section highlights the current situation of global flood events, desert locusts and the impact of conflicts on the global food security.

Global food situation: Global food insecurity presents an increasingly intricate challenge driven by the expanding global population and mounting environmental pressures. This issue transcends mere food production and distribution, encompassing the stability of food systems. These systems contend with a dangerous amalgamation of factors, including political conflicts, economic instability, extreme climate events, and high fertilizer prices, all contributing to the intensifying crisis. Since 2022, the economic aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic compounded by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has sparked price hikes, making food unaffordable for millions worldwide. According to the World Food Program, the number of individuals facing acute food insecurity or being at risk of it surged from 135 million across 53 countries before the pandemic to 345 million spanning 79 countries in 2023—merely a span of two years. 

1. Conflict

West Africa: West Africa, encompassing Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, grapples with persistent food insecurity, posing significant challenges in accessing adequate food across widespread areas within these nations. The prevalence of level 3 of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)  and above conditions underscores the severity of the issue, largely attributed to the disruption of agricultural practices, trade routes, and crucial food aid operations. These disruptions have been caused by ongoing conflicts and pervasive insecurity plaguing the region.

In Burkina Faso, the ongoing conflict has profoundly affected an estimated population of around 360,000 individuals, with 75% originating from Sahelian localities. This isolated population faces severe shortages of essential resources such as food, water, and medicine. Many households are experiencing considerable to severe deficits in food consumption while witnessing the erosion of their coping mechanisms. The situation has escalated as the conflict persists, with an alarming estimated 3.3  million people in Burkina Faso struggling with hunger as of September. Within this distressing statistic, approximately 650,000 individuals are confronting extreme hunger, representing an acute food crisis resulting in the tragic loss of lives due to insufficient food access (classified as IPC phase 5).  In Niger, despite experiencing above-average rainfall conducive to crop development, preliminary forecasts suggest cereal production is anticipated to be below average. Dry spells have constrained yields, particularly in southern and southwestern areas, and a delayed onset of seasonal rains coupled with persisting insecurity has led to a reduced planted area. The conflict in this region has further exacerbated the food insecurity situation. Similarly, Mali faces significant challenges due to conflicts. A majority of the population falls within IPC phases 2 (stressed) and 3 (crisis). However, the country has observed favorable rainfall conditions since the start of the cropping season, providing promising prospects for crop growth and potential improvement in food production.

2. Desert locust

At the beginning of the reporting period, the general situation of desert locusts was under control as the locust survey took place. However, small groups and swarms migrated into northern Yemen post-spring breeding and control measures also took place in Saudi Arabia. Despite Yemen's dry conditions unsuitable for breeding, efforts to control the locusts persisted. Similarly, some control measures were implemented in the interior regions of Sudan. By the end of the reporting, the locust situation remained relatively calm (Figure 1). Summer breeding persisted in Sudan's interior, leading to the presence of small hoppers, adult groups, bands, and swarms, while adult locusts appeared along the Red Sea coast. Saudi Arabia observed hopper groups, bands, and adult groups in specific areas of the Red Sea coast, and adults were sighted on Yemen's coast. Isolated locusts were also spotted in Mauritania, Niger, and Chad. The potential for summer breeding in the northern Sahel, from Mauritania to western Eritrea, remained limited.

Figure 1. Desert locust situation (October 2023);

With the onset of the winter season across the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, substantial rainfall has been experienced in southeast Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and northwest Somalia. This meteorological shift, coupled with anticipated above-average rains forecasted for November and December, signals the initiation of the first generation of hoppers and adult locusts. A subsequent generation is expected to emerge around January 2024, persisting until March or April. Preventive control efforts primarily focus on operations in Sudan and Saudi Arabia, employing biopesticides in parts of Somalia and potentially extending to areas of Yemen, Egypt, and Eritrea.

2. Floods and cyclones

Yemen: Cyclone Tej, which struck the Al Maharah governorate on October 22, 2023, resulted in the displacement of thousands of people. Recent statistics indicate that more than 5,939 individuals were displaced, and over 400 homes were destroyed because of this cyclone. Additionally, the agricultural sector suffered significant losses, with over 5,000 hectares of crops damaged.  The impact of this damage to cropland will undoubtedly have direct repercussions on the region's food security. Coupled with ongoing conflicts that are already exerting pressure on international food prices, this incident exacerbates the challenges faced by the population in ensuring access to adequate food supplies.

Libya: Agriculture serves as the foundation of the Libyan economy. However, the flooding incident in the latter half of 2023 plunged thousands into a state of emergency. On September 10, 2023, the aftermath of storm Daniel passing through the Mediterranean basin led to catastrophic floods triggered by intense rainfall, affecting Libya. This calamity resulted in a reported death toll of 5,300 individuals, with thousands more missing and 33,000 displaced from their homes. Remote sensing data assessments indicated that a mere 3000 hectares of flooded land were designated as cropland, constituting a small proportion of the total affected area. The impact on the agricultural sector extended beyond cropland. The flood event inflicted significant damage on irrigation networks, roads, markets, grain storage facilities, and other crucial infrastructure that support agricultural operations. Moreover, since several flood-affected regions were coastal areas, it's likely that the fisheries sector also faced severe consequences. 

Figure 2. Flood situation report in Lybia as of 13 September 2023

Morocco: Morocco recently experienced a devastating earthquake measuring 6.8 magnitude that struck the regions of High Atlas and Marrakesh in central Morocco. This catastrophic event resulted in the tragic loss of over 1,000 lives and caused extensive destruction to numerous homes and buildings. The impact of this earthquake transcended urban areas, as its epicenter was situated within small farming villages. Consequently, these communities and their agricultural systems suffered severe disruption, significantly impacting food production and distribution systems crucial for the nation’s food security. 

3. Droughts

Global overview: Throughout the reporting period, persistent dry conditions prevailed predominantly across Canada, South America, Australia, and the Mediterranean region. The trend of anomalously warm conditions persisted across all continents during October 2023. This past October marked a record-warm period for Asia and South America, while Africa, Europe, and North America experienced the second-warmest October on record. Despite these warm conditions, a significant portion of the world's agricultural lands continued to suffer from low soil moisture and depleted groundwater levels. These environmental factors have had a detrimental impact on vegetation conditions.

Amazon Drought Crisis: The Brazilian Amazon has long grappled with rampant deforestation, a persistent issue that, albeit showing a promising 42.5% decrease between January and July 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, now faces an acute drought crisis. This severe drought affecting the Brazilian rainforest coincides with historically low precipitation levels observed across eight states in northern and north-eastern Brazil, marking a 40-year low. The prolonged dry spell is exacerbating the degradation of the world's largest and most diverse rainforest. Certain regions within the Amazon are undergoing a transformation from lush, moisture-rich ecosystems—integral for storing substantial amounts of heat-trapping gases—into drier environments that are now releasing these gases into the atmosphere. This alarming shift poses a dual threat to the global battle against climate change and the preservation of biodiversity. The repercussions of this situation reverberate as a devastating blow, not only affecting the fragile equilibrium of the Amazon but also amplifying the challenges in safeguarding our planet's climate stability and the irreplaceable biodiversity of this vital ecosystem. The Amazon rainforest's drought has brought about significant challenges for communities reliant on family farming in the river's floodplains. This dire situation has disrupted crucial aspects of their livelihoods, impacting both the transportation of products and grains along the Amazon River and the transmission of electricity.

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