During the October 2023 to January 2024 reporting period, the winter wheat sowing started in October. For wheat, the conditions were rather favorable, although drought conditions in the Prairies and Northern Plains continued. However, in those regions, spring wheat, which will be planted in April and May, is more important than winter wheat.

The main crop-producing area of North America experienced a relatively warm and dry winter season with slightly below average rainfall (ΔRAIN -4%), average radiation (ΔRADPAR 0%), and above-average temperatures (ΔTEMP +1.0°C), resulting in above-average potential biomass (ΔBIOMSS +6%). The agroclimatic conditions show spatial diversity. A rainfall deficit occurred in the Canadian Prairies (ΔRAIN -23%) and the Northern Plains (ΔRAIN -16%), the drought condition was captured by the minimum Vegetation Health Index (VHIn). The Southern Plains, the main winter wheat production area in North America, experienced good agroclimatic conditions with above average rainfall (ΔRAIN +12%), slightly above average temperatures (ΔTEMP +0.4°C), slightly below average radiation (ΔRADPAR -1%) and significantly above average potential biomass (ΔBIOMSS +11%). These conditions provided a solid support for early stage of winter wheat in the region.

The CALF of North America was 61%, which is 6% below average. CALF showed significant spatial variations. The Canadian Prairies have a CALF of 29%, the northern plains and the southern plains have 38% and 64%, respectively, which are 53% and 1% above average. The VCIx of North America was 0.79, indicating average crop condition. The VCIx in the Southern Plains was 0.79, near the 5-year average. However, crop conditions in the Southern Plains were favorable due to the favorable the agri-climatic condition and above average CALF.

Winter wheat growth in North America looks promising, but it is still too early to determine the yield. CropWatch will closely monitor changes in the region's agri-climatic and agronomic conditions.

Figure 2.2 North America MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, October 2023-January 2024

(a) Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles

(b) Spatial distribution of temperature profiles

(c) Cropped and uncropped arable land

(d) Potential biomass departure from 5YA

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) VHI Minimum