This reporting period covers the harvest of winter crops (mainly wheat and barley), as well as the sowing of early soybean and late maize and soybean crops, and the main growing period for early maize and rice.  According to the agroclimatic indicators, dry and hot weather prevailed in the main production areas of South America, with rainfall significantly below average (ΔRAIN -45%), and both temperatures and RADPAR higher than the 15-year average (ΔTEMP +2.0°C, ΔRADPAR +2%), which led to a decrease in the potential biomass production (ΔBIOMSS -22%). The situation in South America varied among the different subregions. For the most northern MPZ, several agroclimatic indices were poor, with particularly strong anomalies in precipitation, temperature, and BIOMSS. The majority of the MPZ experienced favorable conditions for crop development.

Analysis of rainfall patterns revealed four distinct homogeneous patterns. One pattern, characterized by negative anomalies throughout the reporting period and a tendency to increase over time (orange profile), was observed in the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and North Paraná. In East Paraguay, Mesopotamia in Argentina, and South Paraná and Santa Catarina states in Brazil, a profile with positive anomalies was observed at the end of October and end of November, with no anomalies during the rest of the reporting period (blue profile). In Rio Grande do Sul state in Brazil and Northwest Uruguay, a profile with positive anomalies was observed in mid-October, mid-November, the beginning of December, and mid-January (light green profile). In Argentina, the Subtropical Highlands, Chaco, Humid Pampas, and South Mesopotamia regions exhibited the most stable profile with few anomalies, except for positive anomalies in December (dark green profile).

The temperature profiles displayed four homogeneous patterns distributed along a North-South gradient. During the reporting period, a profile with consistently strong positive anomalies (orange profile) was observed in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and North Paraná in Brazil. Meanwhile, a profile with mostly moderate positive anomalies, but with a strong positive anomaly in mid-November and a negative anomaly at the end of January (blue profile), was observed in Northeast Paraguay, South Paraná, and Santa Catarina states in Brazil. In Southeast Paraguay, Subtropical Highlands, North Chaco, and North Mesopotamia in Argentina, as well as West Uruguay and Rio Grande do Sul state in Brazil, a profile with slight positive and negative anomalies (light green profile) was observed. In addition, a profile dominated by moderate negative anomalies was observed in South Chaco, South Mesopotamia, and Humid Pampas in Argentina.

The BIOMSS departure map indicates poor conditions in the North of the MPZ, including the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and North Paraná, due to strong negative anomalies in rainfall and strong positive anomalies in temperature. Similarly, poor conditions were observed in parts of South Pampas in Argentina. The remaining MPZ areas exhibited moderate to good conditions, with a considerable amount of variability.

Since the monitoring period cover the main growth period of autumn crops in South America, more than 98% of arable land was cropped, which was similar to the 5YA. Only a small amount of arable land in South Buenos Aires and West Chaco was fallow. The maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) of this MPZ was 0.90, indicating that the crops were growing well. Only South Pampas, West Chaco, and East Subtropical Highlands showed low VCIx values, which is similar as the spatial pattern of the fallow land. The rest of the area exhibited good conditions for VCIx. Among them, the VCIx in the Pampas region and eastern Paraguay was greater than 1, indicating that the crop growth conditions in these regions have reached or exceeded the best conditions in the past five years.

In summary, several agroclimatic indices showed poor conditions in the north of the MPZ, including strong negative anomalies in rainfall and BIOMSS and strong positive anomalies in temperature. Considering that during last reporting period poor conditions were also observed over this area, below average crop production are expected.  The rest of the MPZ showed much better conditions for crop growth and development, with the exception of some areas in Argentina that remained uncropped.

Figure 2.3 South America MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, October 2023 - January 2024.

a) Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles. b) Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm).

c) Spatial distribution of temperature profiles. d) Profiles of temperature departure from average (°C).

e) Potential biomass departure from 5YA.

f) Cropped and uncropped arable land.

g) Maximum VCI