This reporting period covers the harvest period of the autumn crop and the sowing period of the winter crop in the Western European Major Production Zone (MPZ). Generally, southern France and eastern Spain experienced rainfall deficits and warmer-than-usual conditions; Crop conditions in the other regions of the  MPZ were above average or close to average based on the interpretation of agro-climatic and agronomic indicators monitored by Cropwatch (Figure 2.6).

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that adequate precipitation continued from the previous monitoring period, and the rainfall in this MPZ was significantly higher by 33%. The following spatial and temporal patterns emerged from the analysis: (1) In early October and late January, the precipitation in almost the entire MPZ areas was below the average; (2) Between mid-October and mid-January, rainfall in southern France, central United Kingdom, central and south-eastern northern Italy, much of central and northern Spain, which together account for 28.4% of the MPZ (the green area in Fig. 2.6a), fluctuated above and below average or was slightly below average; (3) With the exception of mid-December, rainfall was significantly above average between mid-October and mid-January in Germany, small areas of central and southern United Kingdom, northern and south-western France and northern Italy, which together account for 63% of the MPZ area (the dark green , blue and orange areas in Fig. 2.6a); (4) Precipitation was significantly below average in most of central and northern Spain, central and south-eastern United Kingdom and southern France, and a few parts of northern and central and south-eastern Italy during November and early and mid-December, which together account for 8.6% of the MPZ (the red area in Fig. 2.6a); The countries with the highest positive precipitation patterns were Germany (ΔRAIN, +56%), France (ΔRAIN, +25%), the United Kingdom (ΔRAIN, +15%), and Italy (ΔRAIN, -23%). Most of this MPZ had abundant rainfall, which is conducive to the growth of autumn crops and winter crops. But excess soil moisture, such as in northern France and Germany, prevented the sowing of winter cereals.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that this MPZ experienced relatively mild weather (ΔTEMP, +1.3°C) with good light conditions (ΔRADPAR, +1%). As shown in the spatial distribution of temperature profiles, (1) Except for early October, mid-late December and late January, about 35.1% of the MPZ areas experienced cooler average temperatures during the whole monitoring period, mainly distributed in most parts of the United Kingdom, central and northern Germany, southeast and southwest France; (2) About 42.3% of the MPZ areas experienced large fluctuations above and below the average throughout the monitoring period, mainly in most parts of France, central and southern Germany, northern Italy, and a small areas of southern parts of United Kingdom. (3) With the exception of the first part of November, about 22.6% of the MPZ areas experienced warmer-than-usual conditions throughout the monitoring period, mainly in central Spain, southern France, and northern Italy, and a small number of areas in the south-east. The relatively mild weather in the MPZ has resulted in very limited winter frost damage to winter crops, but at the same time, the lack of frost conditions may increase pest and disease pressure later in the season.

Due to the double influence of abundant precipitation and above-average temperatures, the potential BIOMSS was 6% above average. The Biomass accumulation potential departures showed that the lowest BIOMSS values (-20% and less) were observed for southeastern Spain and southeastern Italy. In contrast, BIOMSS was above average (+10% and more), mainly in Germany, much of France, central and southern United Kingdom, central Spain, and northern Italy.

The average maximum VCI for the MPZ reached a value of 0.84 during this reporting period. Maximum VCI showed poor conditions in North-east and south-east Spain, north-east, central and south-east Italy, east-central England. Excep for some areas in western France and central Germany, the rest of this MPZ showed good conditions for VCIx.

About 93% of arable land was cropped, which was 1% higher than the recent five-year average in the whole MPZ. The CALF map showed the uncropped areas of arable land were mainly concentrated in Spain, northern and southeastern Italy, and a few pockets in almost all other countries of this MPZ, reflecting the typical sparse planting of winter crops in drier areas, but also reflecting a delay in the planting of winter crops in some areas, such as in few pockets in France and Germany, high soil moisture due to excessive precipitation. The VHI minimum map shows that relatively large areas of eastern Spain, central and southern France and southeastern Italy were affected by drought conditions at some point during this monitoring period.

Overall, the conditions of crops in the MPZ were mostly average or above average.

Figure 2.5 Western Europen MPZ: Agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, October 2023 to January 2024.

(a) Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles                                                         (b) Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

(c) Spatial distribution of temperature profiles                                              (d) Profiles of temperature departure from average (℃)

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Biomass accumulation potential departure

(g) Cropped arable land

(h) VHI minimum