This monitoring period covers the sowing and establishment period of winter crops. In general, the agroclimatic indicators in this MPZ were higher than average, with higher precipitation (ΔRAIN +39%), higher temperature (ΔTEMP +1.1℃), and higher RADPAR (ΔRADPAR +1%), as compared to the 15YA.

According to the spatial distribution map of rainfall departure, the precipitation in most areas of the MPZ in Central Europe and Western Russia fluctuated around the mean during the monitoring period. The specific spatial and temporal distribution characteristics are as follows: (1) In early October 2023, 62.2% of MPZ had precipitation levels roughly equal to the regional average; in the mid to late October of 2023, 30.4% of the areas received above-average precipitation, mainly concentrated in western Russia, eastern Belarus, and northern Ukraine. (2) From early November to late November 2023, the precipitation across the entire main production area received above-average precipitation and distance level during the monitoring period (ΔRAIN +68 mm); from mid-November to early December, the precipitation in the MPZ decreased. (3) From mid to late December 2023, 17.8% of the areas in the MPZ received below-average precipitation, mainly concentrated in southern Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and central Hungary. (4) In early January 2024, 50.3% of the areas in the MPZ received above-average precipitation, mainly concentrated in western Russia, Belarus, and western Ukraine; from mid-January to late January, 76.6% of the areas in the MPA experienced a decrease in precipitation, reaching the highest negative departures (ΔRAIN -10 mm).

According to the average temperature departure map, temperatures in the MPZ fluctuated widely during the monitoring period. The specific spatial and temporal characteristics are as follows: (1) From early to mid-October 2023, 89.7% of the areas in the MPZ had above-average temperatures, mainly distributed in Belarus, Poland, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Moldova, and western and southern Russia; in late October, 46.1% of the areas in the MPZ experienced a temperature increase, primarily concentrated in western Russia. (2) From early November to early December 2023, although the temperature in the main production region fluctuated, it decreased significantly overall; from early December to late December, the temperature in the MPZ increased significantly overall, reaching the highest anomaly value during the monitoring period (ΔTEMP +6.7℃); from late December to early January 2024, the temperature in the MPZ decreased significantly overall, reaching the highest negative departures during the monitoring period (ΔTEMP -7.7℃). (3) From early January to late January 2024, the temperature in the MPZ presented an overall increase, and in late January, the temperature in the MPZ was higher than the average temperature. (4) Hungary, Romania, Moldova, southern Ukraine, and eastern regions of southwestern Russia all experienced temperatures above the average during the monitoring period.

On average, the potential biomass in the MPZ was higher than the 5YA (ΔBIOMSS +11%). Based on the spatial distribution map of BIOMSS departure, the areas with a 20% lower potential biomass were mainly located in southern Romania. The areas with a 20% higher potential biomass were mainly located in southern Russia, southwestern Ukraine, northwestern Moldova, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary.

During this monitoring period, most of the arable land in MPZ was cultivated, with a CALF value of 69% (10% below average), and the uncultivated arable land was mainly distributed in southeastern Russia, southern Ukraine, Moldova, and southeastern Romania. In the Ukraine, the Russian invasion seems to be affecting crop cultivation. The VCIx showed a significant spatial variation, with an average value of 0.75. The regions below 0.5 were mainly in southeastern Russia, southern Ukraine, southern Moldova, and southeastern Romania, which were mostly consistent with uncultivated land. The minimum health vegetation index is similar to the distribution of the best vegetation condition. The drought areas in the VHI Minimum map are a reflection of the conditions at the beginning of this monitoring period. Abundant rainfall has alleviated the drought conditions in southern Ukraine, southern Russia, and southeastern Romania by the end of this monitoring period.

Overall, CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicators indicate that crop growth was expected to be above average during this monitoring period.

Figure 2.6 Central Europe to Western Russia MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, October 2023 - January 2024.

                         a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles                                                    b. Profiles of rainfall depature from average(mm)

                    c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles                                     d. Profiles of temperature depature from average(℃)

              e. Cropped and uncropped arable land                                              f. Potential biomass departure from 5YA

                              g.VHI Minimum                                                                                       h. Maximum VCI