Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 47 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (Chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro-ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (Chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 47 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports are being dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Together, they are supplying three quarters of maize being traded internationally. Brazil has substantially increased its production in recent years, whereas Ukraine’s export has been hampered by the Russian invasion. In Argentina, conditions were much more favorable than a year ago and a stark increase in production can be expected. In Brazil, the first part of the rainy season is less relevant for maize production than the second half, since the first half is mainly used to grow soybean. Conditions for maize production were average in Kenya, Uganda and northern Malawi. In West Africa, rainfall was limiting maize production to some extent. In Southern Africa, mainly in Zambia, Zimbabwe and South Africa, the rainy season started late and in mid-January, rainfall virtually stopped. The ensuing severe drought will negatively impact maize production. In India, Bangladesh and Southeast Asia, conditions for maize production were favorable.

Rice: Harvest of rainfed rice in China, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and South-East Asia was completed by November. The conditions during the monsoon season had been quite favorable for normal production levels. Production in the other parts of the world is minor in relation to Asia. It is expected to remain stable in Nigeria and West Africa as a whole, although rainfall had stayed below average and was erratic during the rainy season. Conditions for rice in Argentina have been favorable, whereas for Brazil, the rainfall deficit may cause a reduction in production.

Wheat: Conditions for wheat production in Argentina were much more favorable than a year ago. In Brazil, most of the wheat is grown in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. That region was less affected by the rainfall deficit than its other regions and normal production can be expected. In Australia, conditions were less favorable than a year ago, but rainfall was still sufficient to ensure an average harvest. In the southern Plains of the USA, the most important winter wheat production region of the USA, above average rainfall has been creating favorable conditions. The severe drought has been impacting wheat production in the Maghreb and in Spain. Excessive rainfall in northern France and Germany prevented planting in some fields. In Russia, there was a delay in winter crop sowing and germination due to dry soil conditions caused by a precipitation deficit (South Caucasus, North Caucasus, Middle Volga, Ural and the Western Volga). In South Asia, conditions were on the dry side in the Indo-Gangetic Plains. However, most wheat in that region is irrigated. In China, conditions for winter wheat production have been normal. Above average rainfall from Western Europe to Eastern China has been creating rather favorable soil moisture conditions for the spring green-up period of winter wheat and the planting of spring wheat, which will start in April.

Soybean: Brazil and the USA are the dominant exporters of soybean. Together, they account for more than 80% of global exports. In Brazil, sowing of soybean in Goias, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais was delayed because of the drought and late onset of the rainy season. Conditions were much more favorable for Argentina. In Southern Africa, drought conditions will have a negative impact on production in Zambia and Zimbabwe and southern Malawi. In Bangladesh, India and Southeast Asia, conditions were average.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

In Argentina, the rainfall conditions kept improving during this monitoring period. Most of its crop production regions had strong positive departures, by more than +30%. In the southern Pampas, the departures were in the range of +10 to +30%. The conditions in Paraguay were average. Apart from Rio Grande do Sul and Parana in Brazil, rainfall deficits in all of relevant crop production regions of Brazil were by more than -30% below the 15YA. Within Columbia, conditions were variable, but they were generally also far below average. For the Central American countries, as well as Mexico and the Southern Plains of the USA, positive rainfall departures were recorded. Conditions were average along the Westcoast of the USA, but for the Rocky Mountains regions and Western Canada, the rainfall deficit tended to exceed -10%. Most of the corn belt of the USA and Eastern Canada experienced average precipitation. But the Midatlantic region had a negative departure in the range of -10 to -30%. In Africa, conditions were contrasting. Strong positive departures were reported for Senegal, and East Africa, apart from Ethiopia, where conditions were average. The other African regions had strong negative departures, mostly exceeding -30%. Similar negative departures were also observed for the Hindukush, Pakistan and the Western Himalayas. A belt ranging from Western Europe across North-Central Asia, North China Plain and Manchuria, had strong positive rainfall departures by more than +30%. In South-East Asia, conditions were average. China’s coastline, as well as Japan, had below average rainfall (-10 to -30%). In Australia, conditions were mixed.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of October 2023 to January 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.2 Temperatures

The temperatures were by more than 1.5ºC warmer than the 15YA in all of Brazil, Canada, Namibia, Spain, Italy, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Central Asia. Few countries or provinces had below average temperatures: The main crop production regions of Argentina, Niger, the Scandinavian countries, and north-west Russia. In Central America and the USA, temperature departures generally ranged from +0.5 to 1.5ºC. The only exception was Washington State and the coastal region along the Caribbean, which had no departures. Temperatures were also above average in southern Africa, South-, South-East and East Asia, the Malay archipelago and most of Australia.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of October 2023 to January 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in °C .

2.3 RADPAR

In Argentina, the provinces which had above average precipitation, also had less sunshine. Peru and Bolivia also had a strong solar radiation deficit of -3% and more. The other regions of South America had average to above average solar radiation. Mexico, the Westcoast of the United States, the Prairies, Midwest and the eastern half of Canada had below average solar radiation. The Rocky Mountain region and the Southeast were sunnier. West, North- and South Africa had predominantly above average solar radiation (>+3%). The region south of the equator had below average radiation and in East Africa, radiation was average. In Europe, Portugal, Germany, Poland and the northern wheat production regions of Russia west of the Ural had below average sunshine (<-3%). The other regions had positive departures. In most of Asia, solar radiation was above average. In Australia, the Wester half was sunnier than usual, while the eastern half was mostly normal.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of October 2023 to January 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high-latitude regions, the temperature may also limit biomass production. In South America, biomass was above average by more than 10% in the crop production regions of Argentina. In Chile and Brazil, it was below average. For Central America, Mexico, the Plains, Midwest and most of Canada, a positive departure by +5% and higher was estimated. It was below average in the Rocky Mountains. In West- and South Africa, biomass was below average by -10% and more. The Eastern half tended to remain near or above average. In Europe, Spain and Italy were below average (-10 to -5%). For a belt ranging from Western Europe to Eastern China, above average biomass production was estimated. In Southeast Asia, conditions were average and in Australia, they were mixed.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of October 2023 to January 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.