Winter wheat and rice are the main crops that are grown in Afghanistan. Winter wheat was sown in October and November. Rice was harvested in October and November.

The agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN decreased by 33%. TEMP increased by 2.5°C and RADPAR increased by 2%. BIOMSS decreased by 15% as compared to the 15YA. The CALF was only 2%, and the VCIx was only 0.21. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the NDVI was significantly lower than the average level throughout the entire monitoring period. Climate conditions showed that the precipitation was significantly below the average level. Combined with the effects of earlier high temperatures and drought, the growth of winter wheat during this monitoring period was significantly below the average level. 34.1% of the total cropped areas were close to the average level throughout the monitoring period, mainly located in the southern and eastern parts of Afghanistan, including Kandahar and Host provinces. About 41.7% of the total cropped areas were below average levels, primarily situated in the northern regions of Afghanistan, including the northern areas of Herat, Badghis, Faryab and Jowzjan provinces, and the southern and eastern parts of Balkh and Kunduz provinces. Afghanistan's CPI was 0.78, which indicates a poor overall agricultural production situation.

Overall, this monitoring period is critical for the growth of winter wheat in Afghanistan. However, the combination of adverse climatic conditions, decreased rainfall leading to localized droughts, and the lack of adequate infrastructure have led to a pessimistic outlook for this year's winter wheat production. From a long-term perspective, the drought situation in Afghanistan highlights the importance of water resource management and climate change adaptation measures. This includes the development of more efficient irrigation systems, the promotion of water-saving technologies, the improvement of crops' drought resistance, and the enhancement of climate change monitoring and forecasting capabilities. Furthermore, the support and cooperation of the international community are crucial for Afghanistan to address the challenges of drought.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Central region with sparse vegetation (1), Dry region (2), Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region (3), and Mixed dry farming and grazing region (4).

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 51 mm (a decrease of 53%). The average TEMP rose to 3.4°C, marking a significant increase of 3.0°C. RADPAR was recorded at 817 MJ/m², indicating an average level of radiation. However, BIOMSS decreased by 23%, while CALF was extremely low, at only 2%. VCIx was 0.31, reflecting poor vegetation health. From October to January, the NDVI-based crop condition development graph showed that vegetation was consistently below average.

The Dry region recorded 48 mm of rainfall (ΔRAIN -44%), TEMP was higher than average at 9.9°C, and RADPAR was 866 MJ/m². According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were below the average level. CALF in this region was only 1% and VCIx was 0.20.

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, the following indicator values were observed: RAIN measured 139 mm (a decrease of 25%); TEMP increased to 5.5°C, up by 2.4°C, while RADPAR slightly rose to 736 MJ/m² (a 3% increase). BIOMSS decreased by 9% and CALF was 15% below average. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, NDVI was close to the average level and VCIx was 0.24. Though crop condition was below average, areas with better vegetation conditions benefitted from irrigation systems supplementing limited rainfall.

The Mixed dry farming and grazing region recorded 54 mm of rainfall (a decrease of 45%). TEMP rose to 8.6°C, up by 2.9°C and RADPAR was 796 MJ/m², near average levels. CALF was 0%, and VCIx was 0.15, with biomass decreasing by 22%. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was much lower than the 5YA since December, indicating poor conditions.

Figure 3.5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI        (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                           (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                      (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.1 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.2 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024