This monitoring period covers the wheat and barley harvests in Australia. Compared to the 15-year average, both the rainfall (+16%) and temperature (+0.6°C) were higher. However, for the previous monitoring period, a large precipitation deficit was observed. It lasted until late November, when precipitation started to recover to above average levels. Solar radiation was average, corresponding to 1468 MJ/m². The potential accumulated biomass was slightly above average (+5%). The agronomic indicators were below average, with lower CALF (-7%) and poor VCIx (0.67) and CPI (0.82). The dryer-than-usual weather in October and November created favorable conditions for the harvest of the cereal crops, but production was below the level of the previous year.

The NDVI profiles showed that conditions were below average from October to December and then improved in January to finally be greater than the last 5-year maximum. The VCI maximum map showed that most of the areas in the country had VCIx less than 1. The spatial NDVI clustering also showed the same pattern as the NDVI profiles. More than 70% of the area had below average NDVI from October to December. 

Regional analysis

Australia has five agro-ecological zones (AEZs), namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone (marked as 18 on the NDVI clustering map), Southeastern Wheat Zone (19), Subhumid Subtropical Zone (20), Southwestern Wheat Zone (21), Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (22). The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed. Significant regional differences were found in these AEZs.

The Southwestern Wheat Zone was affected by drought, which was caused by the below-average rainfall (39 mm, -63%). Both the temperature (+1.2°C) and radiation (+5%) were increased. As a result, biomass based on agro-climatic indicators was below average (-12%). CALF was 31% below the 5YA. A VCIx of 0.57 and CPI of 0.75 indicate poor crop conditions. The below average NDVI profiles further confirm the poor conditions.

The other three AEZs, including the Southeastern Wheat Zone, the Subhumid Subtropical Zone, and the Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone, had the same agro-climatic condition patterns, which were characterized by wetter and warmer conditions than the 15YA. Rainfall was above average (+29%, +31%, +26%), and the temperatures were warmer (+0.2°C, +0.9°C, +0.6°C). Radiation was basically unchanged (-1%, +1%, -1%). With the abundant rainfall, the biomass was higher than the average of the last 15 years (+9%, +12%, +7%). Contrary to the agro-climatic indicators, the agronomic indicators were variable in the three AEZs. The arable land in the Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone was fully cultivated (99%), while in the Southeastern Wheat Zone and Subhumid Subtropical Zone it was only 71% and 45%, respectively. The VCIx (0.70, 0.62, 0.88) and CPI (0.89, 0.80, 1.10) were higher than for the Southwestern Wheat Zone. The NDVI profiles also showed the same features. They were mostly below average from October to December, and then above average in January.

Figure 3.8 Australia’s crop condition, October 2023 – January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                          (e) NDVI  departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                     (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

(k) CPI time series graph

Table 3.7 Australia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 – January 2024

Table 3.8 Australia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 – January 2024