Winter wheat, which was sown in September and October, is the main crop in the field during this monitoring period. The nation's rainfall had increased compared to the 15YA average (RAIN 395 mm or 38%). Temperature (TEMP 1.3°C or 0.4°C above average) increased but radiation (RADPAR 158 MJ/m² or -2) decreased. Almost all the arable land was cultivated (CALF at about 98%) and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was good (0.87). The projected potential biomass based on the weather conditions was above average (5%).

Nationally, NDVI was below the 5YA. The negative departures are artifacts, caused by cloud cover, fog or snow on the ground. Crop condition in about 55% of the cultivated area was above or close to the 5-year average, in agreement with the national VCIx map. According to the spatial distribution maps, although VCIx was satisfactory in most areas of the country (>0.8), there was an apparent drop in NDVI profiles in many areas from December to January. This artifact was most likely caused by snow cover. The Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.95 and not far from 1.0, and indicates a good prospect considering the sufficient rainfall during the last months of this period.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are provided, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) had more rainfall (38%) and slightly increased temperature (+0.1°C) than average, but radiation had decreased (-4%). The BIOMSS is expected to increase by 2%. The agronomic indicators showed satisfactory values: 99% for CALF and 0.90 for VCIx. The CPI value was 1.01. Crop condition is normal.

In Central Belarus, the Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev regions experienced higher rainfall (37%), slightly higher temperature (+0.6°C), and below average radiation (-1%). The BIOMSS is expected to increase by 6%. Observations indicated that nearly all arable land was utilized for cropping (CALF at 98%), accompanied by a vegetation condition index (VCIx) of 0.86 and a crop production index (CPI) of 0.94. The overall situation for winter cropswas favorable.

The Southern Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions) , higher rainfall (44%), higher temperature (+0.8°C) and higher radiation (2%) were recorded. The BIOMSS is expected to increase by 9%. Favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 96%, VCIx 0.81) were observed. The CPI value was 0.85. Conditions were favorable for winter wheat.

Figure 3.10 Belarus's crop condition, October 2023- January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

 (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA        (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles

 (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

(k) CPI time series graph

(l) CPI time series graph (North Belarus)

(m) CPI time series graph (Central Belarus)

(n) CPI time series graph (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023- January 2024.

Table 3.12 Belarus's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023- January 2024.