The monitoring period saw the conclusion of maize harvest in the North-East and wheat harvest in Central to Southern Brazil. Additionally, the reporting period covers the sowing to early growth stages of maize, rice, and soybean. Rice in central-southern Brazil reached peak vegetation cover by the end of monitoring period. The sowing of rice in Northern Brazil started in late January, while the planting of maize in the north will start at the end February. 

The summer crops of 2023-2024 were negatively impacted by prolonged dry and warmer-than-usual weather, resulting in overall crop conditions below average. According to CropWatch Agro-Climatic Indicators (CWAIs), Brazil received an average rainfall of 347 mm during the observation period, which is almost 61% below the 15-year average, marking the largest negative departure in the last five years. Only two states, namely Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande Do Sul, recorded above-average rainfall, with increases of 35%, and 109% above the 15YA. Acre (ΔRAIN, +0%) and Amapa (ΔRAIN, +3%) recieved close to average rainfall. All other states experienced below-average rainfall, with Goias being the most affected at 96% below average. Brazil experienced a 3.5°C increase in temperature and 4% increase in radiation compared to the 15-year average. These weather conditions led to unfavorable soil moisture for crop growth, resulting in a 35% reduction in potential biomass. Most regions in Brazil, except for the eastern coastal areas and southern Brazil, had below-average BIOMSS. Among the nine main agricultural producing states, Rio Grande Do Sul is the only state with below average temperature (-0.5 ºC) while all the other states suffered from above average high temperature with the largest departure in Goias at 6.2 ºC above 15YA. Radiation departure ranged from -12% in Rio Grande Do Sul to +13% in Sao Paulo compared to the average. With the exception of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catalina, the remaining seven major agricultural producing states experienced below-average BIOMSS due to unfavorable weather conditions.

During this monitoring period, the crop conditions in Brazil were below average due to the dry and hot weather. The NDVI development profiles and clustering maps also showed below-average conditions, except for the eastern coastal areas and parts of southern Brazil, which benefited from normal or above-average rainfall. It is important to note that during this time, southern Brazil experienced heavy rainfall which caused flooding. It negatively impacted crop growth. This resulted in significant negative NDVI departures (indicated by the red color in figure e). The VCIx map shows that high VCIx values were also present in eastern coastal areas and parts of southern Brazil, which coincided with the pattern of above-average NDVI values. The National average value of Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.89, and the Crop Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was close to average, reaching 99%. These values indicate that the dry and hot weather had a negative impact on crop growth and yield but limited impact on the cultivated area.
Overall, crop conditions in Brazil were below average at the end of the monitoring period. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Brazil is 0.98, below previous five year average level. The output of summer crops is forecasted to decrease in comparison of both last year and 5YA although it still depends on the weather conditions in the coming months. If the dry and hot weather persists, the yield of summer crops will further drop.

Regional analysis

Eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) have been identified for Brazil based on differences in cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. These zones are: the Amazon zone (30), Central Savanna (31), the East coast (32), Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (33), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37). All of the AEZs received significantly below average rainfall, ranging from -38% to -90%, and experienced above average temperatures, ranging from 2.1 ºC to 5.0 ºC, except for the Southern Subtropical Rangelands which experienced above average rainfall (ΔRAIN, +102%) and a slight decrease in temperature (ΔTEMP, -0.7°C). This bulletin focuses on the Central Savanna (31), Mato Grosso zone (34), Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern Subtropical Rangelands (37). The dry and hot weather caused a decrease in BIOMSS (-20% to -50%) in most zones, except for the Southern subtropical rangelands (ΔBIOMSS, +17%), where rainfall was above average.

Like other AEZs, the Central Savanna (31) is characterized by dry and hot weather. Agroclimatic indicators indicate below-average rainfall (ΔRAIN -90%) and above-average temperature (ΔTEMP +5.0ºC). Rainfall was consistently below average throughout the monitoring period, leading to a loss of soil moisture and a potential for below-average biomass production (ΔBIOMSS -50%). Based on the NDVI profiles, crop growth conditions were below average at the end of 2023, but recovered to average levels in January. The rainfall in January 2024 mitigated water stress, which helped improve crop conditions in most regions. 

The Mato Grosso zone (34), one of the top agricultural producing regions in Brazil, also experienced dry and warm weather with 74% below average rainfall, 4.6 ºC above the average temperature, and 5% above average radiation. These unfavorable conditions resulted in a 50% drop in BIOMSS compared to 15YA. The NDVI profile clearly indicates below-average crop conditions as the NDVI values during the monitoring period remained lower than both 5YA and the previous season. According to the rainfall profile, it is notably lower than average, particularly prior to January 2024. Despite a recovery in January, the rainfall remains well below normal levels. The CPI time series graph for the Mato Grosso Zone also indicates an unfavorable crop outlook, as the CPI values have decreased to their lowest level in the past five years.

Similarly, the Nordeste (35) showed below-average crop conditions, as reflected in the NDVI-based crop development profile. Agroclimatically, conditions were unfavorable due to a lack of rainfall and above-average temperatures. Additionally, the total area planted in the Nordeste was 4% below average according to the CALF indicator. The VCIx value for the region was 0.73, and the CPI value for the AEZ is 0.69, indicating a below-average production outlook.
The crop condition in Southern subtropical rangelands (37) was excellent, with the highest CPI (1.05) and VCIx (0.91) values among all AEZs, due to suitable temperature and sufficient precipitation. NDVI profiles indicate above-average crop growth conditions in Southern subtropical rangelands throughout the monitoring period. Throughout the monitoring period, crop growth conditions in the Parana River were mostly average. However, there were significant temporal differences during the last four months. The southern region of Brazil experienced heavy rainfall in October and November, with significantly higher than average rainfall in both the Parana River and Southern subtropical rangelands, resulting in flooding. In other months, rainfall was below average. In the Parana basin, there was a 64% decrease in rainfall and a 4.3ºC increase in temperature, resulting in a 40% reduction in BIOMSS. Despite these conditions, crop conditions were close to average, as indicated by the NDVI-based crop development profile, likely due to the accessibility of water and irrigation facilities. The average VCIx value in the region was 0.92. CropWatch estimates that the production in the region was at an average level, with a crop production index (CPI) of 1.00.

Figure 3.11 Brazil crop condition, October 2023- January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(d) Time series rainfall profile

(e) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure profiles

(f) Potential biomass departure from 15YA

(g) Meteorological drought measured by standard precipitation index

(h) CPI time series graph of Brazil

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

(n) CPI time series for Mato Grosso Zone

Table 3.13 Brazil’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.14 Brazil’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024