During this period, sowing of winter wheat was completed in October. After germination and establishment, wheat enters winter dormancy due to the freezing temperatures and snow cover typical of Canadian winters.  

Compared to the 15-year average, Canada experienced below average rainfall (RAIN: -11%), above average temperature (TEMP: +2°C), and slightly below average radiation (RADPAR: -3%) during the period between October 2023 and January 2024. These agroclimatic conditions, as captured by CropWatch indicators, have led to an increase in potential biomass (BIOMSS: +9%).  Winter wheat is mainly grown in Ontario and Quebec. Some winter wheat is grown in the Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba provinces as well. According to the NDVI profile, the conditions for winter crops were mainly below average during this monitoring period. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was lower than the 5-year average by -11%, indicating a reduction in the area of cropped arable land. The Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.80, which is close to the normal range, suggesting that vegetation conditions were near average. The Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.85, indicating that crop production was slightly below the expected level. Overall, the conditions for winter wheat and other crops in Canada were slightly below average due to the prolonged precipitation deficit that has been affecting the Prairies. Conditions during spring green-up will be important for Canada’s 2024 cereal production.

Regional analysis

The Prairies (the area identified as 53 in the NDVI clustering map) and the St. Lawrence Basin (49, covering Ontario and Quebec) are the main agricultural areas.

The Saint Lawrence basin (AEZ code 49) is the main winter wheat production region. There was a noticeable decrease in rainfall with 7% below the 15-year average (15YA). Despite this, the temperature was significantly higher than the average, with an average temperature of 0.8°C, marking a departure of +1.7°C from the 15YA. Radiation levels were slightly below average with a -4% departure from the 15YA. Leading to an 11% increase in potential Biomass in this region.

In the Prairies (AEZ code 53), mainly summer crops are grown.  The rainfall was considerably below the 15-year average by 23%. Average temperatures were 2.3ºC above the 15YA. Radiation was slightly below the 15YA by -1%. The potential biomass production was increased by 3%.

Figure 3.12 Canada's crop condition  October 2023-January 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA   (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                     (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

(i) CPI time series graph

Table 3.15 Canada's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,   October 2023-January 2024

Table 3.16 Canada agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, October 2023-January 2024