This monitoring period covers the late stages of sugar beets, which got harvested in October and November, and the sowing period of winter cereals which started in September. Adequate soil moisture is crucial for the germination and early establishment of the winter cereals, mostly wheat, barley and triticale. However, excess soil moisture prevented planting in some fields.

 CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that total precipitation and temperature were above average (ΔRAIN, +56%; ΔTEMP, +0.8°C), while radiation (ΔRADPAR, -4%) was below the average of the past 15 years. As can be seen from the time series of the rainfall profile, Germany experienced above-average precipitation except for early October and mid-January. Most of the country experienced warmer conditions during the monitoring period, except for early December and mid-January which were cooler than average. Due to adequate precipitation and warmer-than-usual temperatures, the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) increased by 7% at the nationwide level as compared to the 15YA. The dry conditions in October were good for summer crop harvesting in Germany. 

CropWatch agronomic indicators based on NDVI development graph at the national scale show that NDVI values were slightly below average in early October and below the 5-year average level thereafter. Subsequent drops in NDVI can be attributed to either fog, cloud cover or snow on the ground from November to January. These factors also caused large negative departures in the spatial NDVI profiles. These observations were also confirmed by VCI values in the spatial distribution of maximum VCI map. It reached 0.84 at the national scale. Crop production index (CPI) was 0.89, lower than 1, further suggesting below average crop conditions.

Overall, the agronomic and agroclimatic indicators show below average conditions for most winter crops in Germany.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, six sub-national agro-ecological regions are adopted for Germany. They include: the Wheat Zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast (56), Mixed Wheat and Sugar beet Zone of the Northwest (57), Central Wheat Zone of Saxony and Thuringia (55), Sparse Crop Area of the East-German Lake and Heathland area (54), Western Sparse Crop Area of the Rhenish Massif (59) and the Bavarian Plateau (58).  

The large negative NDVI departures that were observed for all regions from November 2023 to January 2024 are artifacts, due to cloud cover, fog or snow. 

Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast is the major winter wheat zone of Germany. Compared to the past 15 years' average, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators RAIN (+52%) and temperature (ΔTEMP, +0.4°C) were above average, while radiation (ΔRADPAR, -12%) was below average. Due to favorable precipitation and temperature during the germination of wheat, biomass (BIOMSS) was increased by 3%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below the 5-year average. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.81) indicating favorable crop prospects. CPI was 0.85. The crop production in this region is expected to be below average. 

Wheat and sugar-beets are major crops in the Mixed wheat and sugar-beets zone of the north-west. RAIN (+65%) was significantly above average and temperature (ΔTEMP, +0.8°C) was above average, while radiation (ΔRADPAR, -9%) was below the past 15 years' average. Due to favorable precipitation and temperature during the germination of wheat, biomass (BIOMSS) was 6% above average. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average except for early-October which was close to the 5-year average. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.84). CPI was 0.90.  The crop production in this region is expected to be below average. 

The Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia is another major winter wheat zone; The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that this region experienced high precipitation (+55%) with warmer weather (ΔTEMP, +0.9°C) and radiation below average (ΔRADPAR, -5%) which led to above average biomass (ΔBIOMSS, +10%). As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average except in early- October which was close to the 5-year average. The area has a high CALF (99%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.80). CPI was 0.87. The crop production in this region is expected to be below average. 

In the East-German Lake and Heathland Sparse Crop Area, significantly above-average precipitation was recorded (ΔRAIN, +51%) and temperatures was higher than average (ΔTEMP, +0.8°C), while radiation (ΔRADPAR, -3%) was below average. As a result, BIOMSS is expected to increase by 8% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average in the whole monitoring period. The area has a high CALF (100%) and the VCIx was 0.81 for this region. CPI was 0.86. The crop production in this region is expected to be below average. 

The cropland in the Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif experienced above average precipitation (ΔRAIN, 48%) and temperature (ΔTEMP, +1.2°C), while radiation (ΔRADPAR, -4%) was below average, which led to a biomass (BIOMSS) increase by 8%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the NDVI values and crop conditions were above the 5-year average in early October, then below 5-year average from mid-October to late January. The area had high CALF (99%) and a high VCIx (0.85). CPI was 0.91. The crop production in this region is expected to be below average. 

A significant increase in precipitation was recorded for the Bavarian Plateau (ΔRAIN, +53%) and above-average temperature (+0.9°C), with above-average radiation (ΔRADPAR, +1%). Compared to the fifteen-year average, BIOMSS increased by 8%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were close to average in early October, then below average from mid-October to late January. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.88). CPI was 0.94. The crop production in this region is expected to be below average. 

Figure 3.13 Germany’s crop condition, October 2023-January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA             (e) NDVI departure profiles 

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                            (g) Temperature profiles

(h) East-German lake and Heathland sparse crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profiles (right) 

(i) Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profiles (right)

(j) Wheat zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic Coast crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profiles (right)

(k) Mixed wheat and sugarbeets zone of the north-west crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profiles (right)

(l) Bavarian Plateau crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profiles (right)

(m) Western sparse crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profiles (right)

(n) CPI time series graph

Table 3.17 Germany agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.18 Germany agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024