During this reporting period, the summer crops such as maize and rice were harvested, followed by the sowing of winter wheat in November. The CropWatch agro-climatic indicators showed that the cumulative rain was 33 mm during the monitoring period, which is 41% below the 15-year (15YA) average. According to the rainfall profile, high rainfall that exceeded the 15YA fell in mid-November and late-January. The temperature was 0.9°C above the 15YA. The temperature profile fluctuated around 15YA with higher temperatures during late October and December. The RADPAR was only 0.8% above the 15YA while the BIOMSS was  3% below the 15YA. The nationwide NDVI profile trended below the 5YA crop conditions. The NDVI spatial pattern shows that only 12.5% of the cultivated area was above the 5YA across the study period, and the rest (87.5%) were below the 5YA. For the whole country, the VCIx value was 0.67, and the CALF was 2% below the 5YA, indicating unfavorable crop conditions. The nationwide crop production index (CPI) was at 0.86. While the agro-climatic indicators encompass all environmental parameters, including rainfall, the situation might still be close to normal, since in Egypt, virtually all crops are grown under irrigation.

Regional Analysis

Based on crop planting systems, climate zones, and topographical conditions, Egypt can be divided into three agroecological zones (AEZs), two of which are suitable for crop cultivation. These are the Nile Delta and the southern coast of the Mediterranean (area identified as 60 in the crop condition clusters map) and the Nile Valley (61).

The Nile Delta and the southern coast of the Mediterranean (zone 60): The average rainfall was 34 mm (43% below the 15YA) while the temperature was at 18.1°C which is higher than the 15YA by 0.8°C. The RADPAR was only 0.8% above the 15YA while the BIOMSS was  12% below the 15YA. Generally, the NDVI development graph followed the nationwide NDVI profile. CALF was below the 5YA by 2% and the VCIx value was at 0.67, implying unfavorable crop conditions. The CPI was at 0.86, confirming a below-normal crop production situation.

The Nile Valley (zone 61): The average rainfall was only 6 mm (52% below the 15YA) while the temperature was at 18.0°C which is higher than the 15YA by 0.9°C. The RADPAR was 2.3% below the 15YA while the BIOMSS was  14% above the 15YA. Generally, the NDVI development graph followed the nationwide NDVI profile. CALF was below the 5YA by 2% and the VCIx value was at 0.76, implying unfavorable crop conditions. The CPI was at 0.85, confirming a below-normal crop production situation.

Figure 3.15 Egypt’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Nile Delta (left) and Nile Valley (right)

(g) Rainfall profiles                                                                                            (h) Temperature profile

（i) CPI time series graph

Table 3.21 Egypt’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

 Table 3.22 Egypt’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024