Throughout the monitoring period spanning from October 2023 to January 2024, harvest of staple crops such as teff, wheat, barley, and maize was completed.

On a national scale, cumulative rainfall decreased by 4% compared to the 15YA. The average temperature increased by 0.9°C compared to the 15YA, while photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) remained largely stable, showing no significant change (0%). Due to the delayed onset of the rainy season in the 2022-2023 cropping season, crops were sown late, leading to a delayed senescence compared to the usual timing. The NDVI curve approached average levels (5-year average) at the beginning of October, diverged until the start of November, and then followed the average trend until the end of January. The current Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) intensity reached 0.87. On a national level, the Crop Production Index (CPI recorded a value of 0.93, indicating a decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Estimated biomass (BIOMSS) was 3% lower than the 15-year average, which represents an improvement compared to the 14% reduction observed during the main production season in 2022. However, crop conditions can be assessed as below average,

In summary, Ethiopia's agricultural conditions from October 2023 to January 2024 present a mixed scenario. The rainy season started late and rainfall was generally below average. While some regions exhibited favorable crop conditions and production prospects, others faced challenges due to weather variability.  Generally, the convergence of inadequate rainfall, conflict, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions have resulted in below-average crop production in Ethiopia for the year 2023. Widespread food insecurity persists throughout the nation, with notable impact felt in the north, northeast, and southeast regions.

Regional Analysis

This regional analysis centres on five key cereal production areas: the Central-northern maize-teff highlands (AEZ 63), Western mixed maize zone (AEZ 74), Great Rift region (AEZ 65), South-eastern Mendebo highlands (AEZ 71), and South-western coffee-Enset highlands (AEZ 73).

The agroclimatic conditions in the Central-northern maize-teff highlands, Western mixed maize zone , and South-eastern Mendebo highlands  were as follows: Cumulative rainfall in Central-northern maize-teff highlands was below average (-24%), while Western mixed maize zone and South-eastern Mendebo highlands experienced above-average rainfall (20% and 31%). Biomass levels followed a comparable pattern compared to the 15YA (BIOMSS -3%, 4%, and 12%). CPI values for these region were 0.91, 0.97, and 1.0, indicating average crop production situation in South-eastern Mendebo highlands and a better crop production situation for the Western mixed maize zone and unfavourable crop production situation in Central-northern maize-teff highlands. NDVI trends showed an average pattern. Cropped arable land fraction and cropping intensity remained relatively stable, except for Central-northern maize-teff highlands, which experienced a decrease in cropped arable land fraction (-6%). Due to the moisture deficit, crop production conditions were below average in the Central-northern maize-teff highlands.

The South-western coffee-Enset highlands was also affected by moisture stress. Rainfall was notably lower at -20% compared to the 15YA. In contrast, the Great Rift Valley region experienced above-average rainfall, recording a 17% increase. Biomass levels in South-western coffee-Enset highlands were estimated at -7% compared to the 15YA, while in Great Rift region, biomass showed an increase of 11%. Cropped arable land fraction and cropping intensity remained mostly unchanged across both regions. However, crop production in South-western coffee-Enset highlands was below average due to the moisture stress.

Figure 3.16 Ethiopia’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI	(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA	(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series profile of rainfall	(g) Time series profile of temperature
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff highlands (left) Great Rift region (right))
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-eastern Mendebo highlands (left) and South-western coffee-enset highlands (right))
(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western mixed maize zone)     (k) CPI Time Series in Bulletin 1

Table 3.23 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.24 Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024