The planting of winter wheat, winter barley and rapeseed took place between September and November. The NDVI development curves were below the 5-year average during this monitoring period,which may have been caused by clouds or snow.  All of agroclimatic indicators are above average (ΔRAIN +15%, ΔTEMP +0.6°C, ΔRADPAR +4%). The favorable conditions resulted in above-average biomass (ΔBIOMSS +6%). The seasonal RAIN profile shows that the rainfall in most of the monitoring period was above average. The TEMP profile shows that temperature was fluctuating during this monitoring period.

The national average VCIx was 0.83. CALF (99%) was unchanged compared to its five-year average. Crop production index (CPI) was 0.88. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 50.8% of arable land (blue line, yellow line and dark green line) experienced average crop conditions, mainly  the East and South of England. (2) 49.2% of arable land (green line and red line), mainly in South of England,  had fluctuating and below-average crop conditions. Altogether, the conditions for winter wheat in the UK are assessed as slightly below average, mainly due to to below-average NDVI and CPI values.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions are described below: the Northern barley region （84, Central sparse crop region （83） and Southern mixed wheat and barley region (85). All three sub-regions are characterized by an unchanged fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) compared to the 5YA.

In the Northern barley region, NDVI was below average. Rainfall, temperature and radiation are all above average (ΔRAIN +12%, ΔTEMP +0.6°C, ΔRADPAR +2%). Biomass was above average (ΔBIOMSS +6%). The VCIx was 0.88. Crop production index was 0.90. Overall, the conditions were slightly below average.

The Central sparse crop region is one of the country's major regions for crop production.  NDVI was below average. Rainfall, temperature and radiation are all above average (ΔRAIN +8%, ΔTEMP +0.1°C, ΔRADPAR +1%). Biomass was above average (ΔBIOMSS +4%).  The VCIx was 0.85. Crop production index was 0.86. Overall, the situation was slightly below average.

In the Southern mixed wheat and barley zone, NDVI was below average, similar to the Central sparse crop region. Rainfall (ΔRAIN +28%), temperatures (ΔTEMP +0.9°C) and radiation (ΔRADPAR +6%) were significantly above average. Agro-climate conditions resulted in above-average biomass (ΔBIOMSS +7%).  The VCIx was 0.82. Crop production index was 0.88. Overall, the conditions were slightly below average.

Figure 3.18 United Kingdom crop condition, October 2023-January 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

(i) CPI Time Series graph

Table 3.27 United Kingdom's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023-January 2024

Table 3.28 United Kingdom's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, October 2023-January 2024