During the monitoring period, the second-season rice in Java and the dry-season corn had been harvested. The rainy season corn in Java and Sumatra and the main season rice had been sown in November.

CropWatch Agroclimatic Indicators (CWAIs) showed that temperature (ΔTEMP +0.6°C), precipitation (ΔRAIN +6%) and radiation (ΔRADPAR +5%) were above the 15YA. However, potential biomass production decreased (ΔBIOMSS -1%). There was a general rainfall deficit at the beginning of this monitoring period, causing a delay of the planting of main season rice, especially on Java.  According to the national NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to the 5YA before early December and above the 5-year maximum at the final stage of the monitoring period. The NDVI clusters and profiles show that crop NDVI in all cultivation areas were below the 5YA at the beginning of the monitoring period but most areas have recovered to near-average levels in late January. Crop conditions for the 12.2% of cropland (southern Sumatra, western Java, and western Kalimantan) dropped below the 5YA sharply at the end of the monitoring period. This can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. The area of cropped arable land (CALF 99%) in Indonesia was close to the 5YA and the VCIx value was 0.93. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in this country was 0.97. Overall, crop conditions can be assessed as close to average.

Regional analysis

This analysis focuses on four agro-ecological zones in Indonesia: Sumatra (92), Java (90, the main agricultural region in Indonesia), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91), and West Papua (93), among which the first three are the most relevant for crop cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

On Java, the temperature and radiation (ΔTEMP +0.8°C, ΔRADPAR +9%) were above the 15YA, while precipitation (ΔRAIN -31%) was significantly below the average. The precipitation deficit caused the potential biomass production to decrease (ΔBIOMSS -11%). The NDVI development graphs show that crop conditions were below the average before late January, but they reached the 5-year maximum in late January. The Crop Production Index (CPIx) in Java was 0.90, crop productions were anticipated to be normal.

On Kalimantan and Sulawesi, temperature and radiation(ΔTEMP +0.6°C, ΔRADPAR +7%) were above the 15YA, whereas precipitation was close to the average.  The BIOMSS was close to the 15YA.  According to the NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were close to 5YA and above the 5-year maximum after early December. The Crop Production Index (CPIx) in Kalimantan and Sulawesi was 0.99, and crop production in Kalimantan and Sulawesi can be assessed as favorable.

Radiation (ΔRADPAR -2%) was below the 15YA, while temperature and precipitation (ΔTEMP +0.6℃, ΔRAIN +37%) were above the average in Sumatra. The potential biomass production (ΔBIOMSS +1%) was slightly higher than average. As shown in the NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were above the 5YA  and 5-year maximum during the monitoring period. The Crop Production Index (CPIx) in Sumatra was 0.98, and crop production on Sumatra Island can be assessed as above average.

Figure 3.20 Indonesia’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

    (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

 (c) Maximum VCI

                                                        (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                            (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles

 (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Kalimantan_Sulawesi)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

(k) CPI Time Series in Bulletin 1

Table 3.31 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 – January 2024

Table 3.32 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA,October 2023 – January 2024