During the October 2023 to January 2024 period, Kharif (summer) rice harvest was mostly completed by November. It was followed by the sowing of wheat, which was concluded in December. Rabi (winter) rice planting started in November. Soybean harvest was also completed by December.

The agricultural meteorological indicators of nationwide India show that, compared to the average level of the same period in the past 15 years, the average precipitation increased by 32%, though there were large differences in the eight agricultural ecological zones. Estimated biomass increased by 3%. The overall maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) in India was relatively low at 0.84. From the spatial distribution of VCIx, it can be seen that the values were below 0.78 in the agricultural areas of  Rajastan and Gujarat. From the spatial clustering NDVI anomaly map, it can be seen that during the entire monitoring period, crop growth was close to or lower than the average level. There was a serious NDVI drop in January for 8.7% area that is close to Himalaya mountains. This was probably caused by fog, which obscured the view of the satellite. Compared with the average level of the same period in the past 5 years, the proportion of cultivated land was at a normal level. The crop production index was 0.91, the lowest value of the past 5 years, indicating slightly below-average conditions.

Regional analysis

According to crop cultivation system, climate zone, and terrain conditions, India is divided into 8 agricultural ecological zones, namely the Deccan Plateau region (94), the Western Coastal region (95), the Ganges Plain region (96), the Assam and Northeast regions (97), the Rajasthan and Gujarat agricultural regions (98), the Western Coastal region (99), the Northwest arid region (100), and the Western Himalaya region (101).

The agricultural meteorological indicators for the Deccan Plateau, Rajastan and Gujarat, Western Himalayan region and North-western dry region were similar. Compared to the average level of the same period in the past 15 years, the overall precipitation was lower than the average level. The average temperature and PAR were slightly above average, resulting in reduced potential biomass. Compared with the average level of the same period in the past five years, the proportion of cultivated land in the three regions was close to or below the average. The cropping intensity index was close to the average or below, and the utilization rate of arable land was at a lower level. The crop growth NDVI profile shows that during most of the monitoring period, due to the impact of the precipitation deficit, the crop growth was lower than the average level of the past five years. The NDVI in the Deccan Plateau was below average with a precipitation anomaly of -29%. It had declined from October to early November and began increasing with continuing precipitation of 41.5 mm from the third decade of November to early December. NDVI in Rajastan and Gujarat declined from October to January with a precipitation anomaly of -33%, The NDVI in West Himalayan increased with precipitation anomalies -53%.  The NDVI in North-western dry region was close to average or below with precipitation anomalies of -26%. The crop production index (CPI) in the Northwestern dry region was 0.69, the lowest among all agricultural ecological zones, and the utilization rate of arable land was also lowest (CALF 25%) and reduced by 21% compared to its 5YA. The CPI in the other three regions ranged from 0.83 to 0.95, indicating that the crop growth conditions were below the average level.

       The agricultural meteorological indicators in the Western coastal area, Eastern coastal region, Gangetic plain and Assam and North-eastern regions were similar. Compared with the average levels of the same period in the past 15 years, cumulative precipitation was above average, temperature and PAR were both close to or above average, while  potential biomass was close to or higher than average. The proportion of cultivated land cultivation and the cropping intensity index were comparable to the average level of the same period in the past five years. The cropping intensity index was close to average level, and the utilization rate of arable land was at an average level. The crop growth NDVI profile in the western coastal area shows that NDVI was close to average. The crop growth NDVI profile in the eastern coastal area shows that NDVI was below average, but precipitation was 64% higher. Crop growth NDVI profile in the Gangetic plain shows that NDVI was lower than average level. The crop growth NDVI profile in the Assam and north-eastern regions shows that NDVI was close to the average level with a precipitation anomaly of 3%. The CPI of the Western coastal area was 0.92, CPI in the Eastern coastal region was 0.93 and CPI in the Gangetic plain was 0.91, indicating that the crop growth was slightly below average and the CPI of Assam and north-eastern regions was 1.02 which was close to the average level. 

Figure 3.21  India’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenological of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles

(g)  Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Rajastan and Gujarat (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Himalayan region (left) and North-western dry region (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western coastal areas (left) and Eastern coastal region (right))

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangatic plain (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

 (j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.33 India’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3,34 India’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024