Crop conditions trended slightly below average throughout the monitoring period according to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI. The sowing of winter wheat was completed in October. The temperature was above average (ΔTEMP +2.4℃), radiation was slightly above average (ΔRADPAR +3%), while rainfall was below average (ΔRAIN -28%) as compared to the 15YA. The lack of rainfall resulted in a slight decrease in the BIOMSS index by 12% as compared to the 15YA. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 14% compared to the recent five-year average and the national average of maximum VCI index was 0.58. The national Crop Production Index (CPI 1.17) was bigger than 5YA, indicating a relatively higher-than-normal crop production condition. 

According to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, approximately 75.9% of the cropland (marked in blue, dark green and orange) had around-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period. 12.3% of the cropland (marked in red) had near-average crop conditions at the beginning of the monitoring period and then gradually rose to above-average crop conditions. Light green marked regions (11.8% of the cultivated area), mainly distributed in some parts of West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, Kordestan, Zanjan, Gilan and Ardebil, had average to above average crop conditions from the beginning and encountered a slight decrease at the end of the monitoring period. The spatial pattern of the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was in accord with the spatial distribution of the NDVI profiles. The low NDVI values during the monitoring period could be attributed to cloud or snow cover. Overall, the conditions for winter crops were below average due to the rainfall deficit.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (104), and Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (103). 

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, crop conditions were slightly below average during the whole monitoring period. This AEZ is a mountainous, relatively high-altitude region. Snow cover is common, and thus the low NDVI values are not representative. The temperature was 2.3°C above average, the accumulated rainfall was 151 mm (25% below average), and radiation was slightly above average (ΔRADPAR +3%). The unfavorable agroclimatic conditions resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 10% compared to the recent 15-year average. The CALF decreased by 15%. The average VCIx was 0.62, and regional CPI was at 1.25, indicating a higher-than-normal crop production prospect. All in all, crop conditions were below average.

The NDVI trend for the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region indicated average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period except for late November. This AEZ received 84 mm rainfall during the reporting period, 46% below the 15YA average (ΔRAIN -46%). Temperature was 2.3°C above average (ΔTEMP +2.3℃), and radiation was 1% below average (ΔRADPAR +1%). BIOMSS was below average (ΔBIOMSS -14%) as a result of below average precipitation. The CALF increased by 11% compared to the 5YA, reflecting that more land was cultivated. The average VCIx of this region was 0.57, and regional CPI was 1.04. Crop conditions were also assessed as fair.

Figure 3.22 Iran's crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI              (c) Time series rainfall profile

(d) Time series temperature profile                                       (e)  Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                 (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (left) and Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (right))

(i) Crop Production Index Profile from 2019 to 2024

Table 3.35 Iran's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023-January 2024

Table 3.36 Iran's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, October 2023-January 2024