This report covers the sowing of winter wheat in October and November. According to the crop condition development graph, NDVI values were below average during the entire period. The overall rainfall (ΔRAIN -23%) was below the 15YA. Temperature (ΔTEMP, +2.2°C) and PADPAR (+7%) were above average. The combined effect of the three weather parameters led to a 9% decrease in estimated BIOMSS. 

The national average VCIx was 0.74. CALF (89%) was 7% below the 5A. CPI was 0.74. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 32.3% of arable land had crop conditions hovering around average, mainly in Torino, Milano, Sicily and Verona. (2) 43.8% of arable land experienced below-average crop conditions, mainly in Brescia, Padova and Sicily. (3) 23.9% of arable land, mainly in Sardegna, Pesaro, Arezzo and Parma, was below average from October to December, and above average in January.  Based on observations at this stage, CropWatch estimates that crop conditions are below average, but we are currently in the early stages of sowing and growing of winter crops, so the impact on final crop yields might be limited.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy. These four regions are East coast (105), Po Valley (106), Islands (107) and Western Italy (108).

East coast (105) is one of the major agricultural areas. A sizable share of winter wheat is planted in this region. Especially in the regions of Foggia, Matera, San Severo and Manfredonia. In this region, rainfall was lower by 41%, while temperature and RADPAR were higher by 1.9°C and 11% respectively and potential biomass was 21% lower than the average of the last 15 years. NDVI values were below average during the entire period. VCIx in the subregion reached 0.65. CPI was 0.60. CALF was 76%. It was 13% lower than the average of the last 5 years. Based on observations at this stage, crop conditions were below average.

Po Valley (106) is another major agricultural region. A sizable share of winter durum wheat is planted in this region. Especially in the area of Parma, Bologna, Ferrara and Ravenna. In this region, rainfall was lower by 7%, while temperature and RADPAR were higher by 2.3°C and 5% respectively and potential biomass was 11% higher than the average of the last 15 years. NDVI values were below average during the entire period. VCIx in the subregion reached 0.77. CPI was 0.76. CALF experienced a 6% decrease compared to the 5YA. Current crop conditions were below average.

Compared to the average of the last 15 years, rainfall on the Islands (107) was lower by 50%, and temperature and RADPAR were higher by 1.9°C and 9%, respectively. Lower precipitation during the growing season negatively impacted the crops. It resulted in a 29% decrease in BIOMSS. NDVI values were below average during the entire period. VCIx in the subregion reached 0.70. CPI was 0.67. CALF was 86%. Crop conditions were below average.

Western Italy (108) is another major agricultural region. A sizable share of winter wheat is planted in this region. In this region, rainfall was lower by 29%, while temperature and RADPAR were higher by 2.3°C and 8% respectively. The combined effect of the three weather parameters led to a 9% decrease in estimated BIOMSS. VCIx in the subregion reached 0.76. CPI was 0.81. CALF was 97%. Crop conditions were below average.

Figure 3.24 Italy’s crop condition, October 2023-January 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Italy). 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles. 

(e) CPI time series graph. 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (East Italy).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Po Valley).

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Islands).

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (West Italy).

Table 3.45 Italy’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2023-January 2024

Table 3.46 Italy’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2023-January 2024