Kenya experiences two discernible rainy seasons: the long rains span from March to late May, while the short rains occur from late October to December. Maize cultivation is carried out during both the long and short rainy periods, whereas wheat is exclusively grown during the long rains. This report, covering the monitoring period from October 2023 to January 2024, focuses on the short rainy season and encompasses the wheat harvest and maize cultivation during the long rains.

On a national scale, precipitation measured 468 mm, a significant 16% above the average. The national rainfall profile indicates that precipitation levels were close to the 15-year average. At the sub-national level, rainfall exceeded the average in all regions except for the Southwest (ΔRAIN -87%). Furthermore, the NDVI development graph at the national level shows that NDVI values were below the 5-year average, particularly towards the end of October.

According to NDVI clusters and corresponding departure profiles, the blue and orange regions exhibited higher NDVI values than the average, indicating good crop growth, accompanied by relatively high VCIx values. In the central region, the red areas initially showed lower NDVI values in October, but the corresponding VCIx values ranged from 0.8 to 1.0, indicating close to normal crop growth conditions. The light and dark green areas, which encompass approximately 23.9% of the national cropland, are primarily located in the highland agricultural zone. NDVI values were below the average, indicating poor crop growth, consistent with regions showing relatively low VCIx values. The CPI value surpasses that of the same period in the past three years and is also higher than the five-year average, standing at 1.09. Overall, the drought situation in Kenya has been effectively relieved, with crop growth significantly improved compared to previous years.

Regional Analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Kenya can be divided into four sub-national agro-ecological regions: the Eastern coastal region (113), the Highland agriculture zone (114), the Northern region (115), and the Southwest region (116).

In the Eastern Coastal Region, precipitation exceeded the average by 54%, accompanied by temperatures and RADPAR slightly above the norm. BIOMSS measured 17% higher than the 15YA. The maximum VCI reached 0.95, the CPI was 1.22 and the CALF increased by 9% to reach 100%. Moreover, the NDVI curve surpassed the five-year average. Overall, crop conditions in the coastal area have significantly improved compared to the previous year, with ample rainfall contributing to favorable conditions and promising prospects for both livestock and crop production.

The Highland Agriculture Zone received 476 mm of rainfall, which was 17% above the 15-year average. The heightened precipitation had a slight impact on BIOMSS. The CPI value of 1.08 was the lowest among the AEZs. NDVI levels were above the five-year average from November to January. The sharp drop in mid October can probably be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. Overall, conditions can be assessed as above average.

In the Northern Rangelands Region precipitation was significantly above average at 560 mm (RAIN +56%). BIOMSS was also above average (ΔBIOMSS +15%). The NDVI development graph showed values above average. CALF was increased by 21%, CPI was 1.26. Overall, the situation of crop growth in this area was favorable.

The Southwest region comprises the districts of Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu, which experienced the most significant decrease in rainfall, with a departure of -87%. Despite the considerable variation in precipitation, CALF remained unchanged, CPI was 1.11 and NDVI values were close to the 5YA. The VCIx value stood at 0.99, the highest among the four AEZs in Kenya. In conclusion, despite the severe drought in the area, vegetation growth has not been severely affected, thanks to the relatively high irrigation ratio in the region.

Figure 3.25 Kenya's crop condition, October 2023-January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN and TEMP (Kenya)

(c) Maximum VCI                                                                                                     (d) CPI time series graph

(e) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                          (f) NDVI departure profiles

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on CPI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on CPI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Figure 3.41 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,

October 2023-January 2024

Figure 3.42 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, October 2023-January 2024