The sowing of winter wheat in Kyrgyzstan was completed in October. During the months of October to January, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicator RAIN (+6%) was above average, RADPAR (+2%) was slightly above average, and TEMP was also above average (+1.8℃). The combination of these factors resulted in an increased estimate for BIOMSS (+10%) compared to the fifteen-year average. As shown by the NDVI development graph, the crop conditions started falling to below average from middle November on, which might have been due to snow cover or possibly clouds in the satellite images. In terms of the spatial NDVI clustering profile, 35.6% of the cultivated area (marked in light green) had near-average crop conditions. They improved to better-than-average at the end of the monitoring period. Other clustered regions experienced some fluctuations in crop conditions. 48.6% of the cultivated area (marked in orange, red and blue), showed gradually rising positive NDVI departures and then encountered varying degrees of fallback in late November, middle and late December, respectively, mainly distributed in north west part of Talas, north central part of Chuy, north east part of Issyk-kul, southern part of Jalal-abad, and northern part of Osh. 15.8% of the cultivated area (marked in deep green) had near-average crop conditions before early December. They then gradually fell below the 5YA, mainly distributed in northern part of Chuy, Talas, and Issyk-kul. The spatial pattern of maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was in accord with the spatial distribution of the NDVI profiles. The national average VCIx was 0.79. Agro-climatic and agronomic conditions were mixed with CALF at 14%, 1% below average. The national Crop Production Index was 1.00, better than the 5YA (0.84), indicating a promising crop production outlook. Overall, the crop conditions in Kyrgyzstan can be assessed as fair.

Figure 3.26 Kyrgyzstan's crop condition, October 2023 to January 2024

(a) Crop phenology

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop Production Index Profile from 2019 to 2024

Table 3.43 Kyrgyzstan agro-climatic indicators, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 to January 2024

Table 3.44 Kyrgyzstan agronomic indicators, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 to January 2024