This reporting period covers the key growing and harvesting period of potatoes, and the sowing period of wheat and barley in Lebanon. Potatoes reached maturity in October, the planting of wheat and barley started in October and November. Based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in Lebanon were generally above average before December, and then belove average from early-December to January. 

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that in contrast to the severe precipitation deficit characteristic of the previous period, total precipitation at the national level was above average (ΔRAIN +7%); temperatures was above average (ΔTEMP, +0.7%), and radiation was below average (ΔRADPAR, -0.3%).  As shown in the time series rainfall profile for Lebanon, with the exception of mid-November and late December 2023 and mid- to late January 2024, when precipitation was significantly above average and even above or close to the maximum for the past 15 years, precipitation in the rest of the monitoring period was significantly below average. Most of the region experienced warmer-than-usual conditions during this reporting period, or even close to the maximum for the past 15 years, except for late-October and late-November 2023, late-January 2024, when it was below average. Due to moderate cumulative precipitation and suitable temperature, the biomass production potential (BIOMSS) was estimated to increase by 5% nationwide as compared to the fifteen-year average.

As shown in the crop condition development graph and the NDVI profiles at the national level, NDVI values were close to or above average from October to November, and then below average from early-December to January. These observations are confirmed by the clustered NDVI profiles: 71.7% of regional NDVI values were above average before December (except of late-October), about 28.3% of regions NDVI values were below average throughout this monitoring period, only 15.6% of regions NDVI values were significantly above average throughout this monitoring period. These observations are confirmed by lower VCI values shown in the maximum VCI map. These negative departures were due to below-average rainfall and overall VCIx was 0.84. The average national CPI was 0.99, indicating generally normal conditions. Overall, agro-climate conditions were average in the monitoring period.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions are adopted for Lebanon. They include: Bekaa Valley Zone (231), Western Coastal Zone (230) and Mountainous region (229). 

Bekaa Valley Zone is the major crop production zone of Lebanon. Rainfall and Temperature were both above average (ΔRAIN, +15%; ΔTEMP, +0.5%), but radiation (ΔRADPAR, -25%) was below average. Their combined effect increased BIOMSS by 8% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were close to or above average from October to November, and then below average from early-December 2023 to January 2024. The area has a low CALF (19%). It increased by 18% compared to the five-year-average across this region, and the VCIx was 0.78. 

Western Coastal Zone is another major crop zone. reduction in temperature and radiation were recorded (ΔTEMP, -0.4%; ΔRADPAR, -24%), but Rainfall (ΔRAIN, +43%) was significantly above average. Their combined effect increased BIOMSS by 14% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were was significantly above average and even close to the maximum for the past 15 years from October to November, and then below average from early-December 2023 to January 2024 except for late-December. The area has a high CALF (93%). It increased by 3% compared to the five-year-average across this region, and the VCIx was 0.86. 

Rainfall and Temperature were both above average (ΔRAIN, +15%; ΔTEMP, +0.4%) in the Mountainous region, while radiation (ΔRADPAR, -23%) was significantly belove average. As a result, BIOMSS is expected to decrease by 5% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were close to or above average from October to November, and then below average from early-December 2023 to January 2024. The area has a moderate CALF (62%). It increased by 11% compared to the five-year-average across this region, and the VCIx was 0.85. 

Figure 3.29 Lebanon's crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops in Lebanon

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the October 2023 - January 2024 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(c) Maximum VCI for the October 2023 - January 2024 period

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns for Lebanon up to January 2024 according to local cropping patterns and as compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

(e) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) of Lebanon comparing the October 2023 - January 2024 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(f) Bekaa Valley Zone crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)

(g) Western Coastal Zone crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)

(h) Mountainous region crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left), time series rainfall profiles (middle) and temperature (right)

(i) CPI time series graph

Table 3.49 Lebanon's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023-January 2024

Table 3.50 Lebanon's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA, October 2023-January 2024