During this monitoring period, winter wheat, barley, and legumes are Morocco's main crops. Winter wheat sowing started in November and was completed in December. The cumulative rainfall was 75 mm which is lower than the 15-year average (15YA) by 64%. The rainfall profile shows that the decadal rainfall did not exceed 20 mm during the monitoring period, and it exceeded the 15YA only around mid-October. The average temperature was 13.0°C which is higher than the 15YA by 1.2°C. The temperature profile shows that the temperature was generally above average. The RADPAR was 8.2% above the 15YA while the BIOMSS was 35% below the 15YA. The decrease in BIOMSS can be attributed to the decrease in rainfall. The nationwide NDVI profile was below the 5-year average (5YA) during the reporting period. The NDVI spatial pattern shows that only 8.8% of the cultivated area was above the 5YA starting from November while the rest was below the 5YA during the monitoring period. The Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) map shows that the conditions of the current crops were below average, where the dominant VCIx values were below 0.5. This finding agrees with the whole country's VCIx value of 0.40. CALF was lower than the 5YA by 46%. The nationwide crop production index (CPI) was at 0.61, implying a below-normal crop production situation. In general, the crop conditions were unfavorable due to a large precipitation deficit.

Regional analysis

CropWatch divided the areas that are relevant to crop production in Morocco into three agroecological zones (AEZs): the Sub-humid northern highlands (zone 125), the warm semiarid zone (zone 126), and the warm sub-humid zone (zone 127).

Rainfall was below the 15YA by 63%, 75%, and 59%, while the temperature was higher than the 15YA by 1.2°C, 1.2°C, and 1.1°C in the three zones in their listed order, respectively. RADPAR was higher than the 15YA by 11%, 7%, and 9%, respectively. In the three zones, BIOMSS was lower than 15YA by 35%, 37%, and 32%, respectively.  The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions were below the average in the three zones following the nationwide NDVI profile. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was below the 5YA by 29%, 71%, and 35% in the three zones in their order (125, 126, and 127 respectively). The maximum VCI value was 0.52, 0.26, and 0.55 for zones 125, 126, and 127 respectively, implying below-average crop conditions. In three zones, the CPI was at 0.88, 0.32, and 0.69, respectively, implying a below-normal crop production situation following the nationwide CPI.

Figure 3.31 Morocco’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Sub-humid northern highlands (left) and Warm semiarid zones (right)

(g) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Warm subhumid zones

(h) Rainfall profiles      (i) Temperature profiles

                                            （j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.53 Morocco’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.54 Morocco’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024