This report covers the production of irrigated wheat, typically sown in November and December, as well as irrigated winter maize, sown roughly one month earlier. Maize and wheat will reach the harvesting stage in March and April, respectively.

Agro-climatic conditions show that RAIN increased by 21%, TEMP increased by 0.8°C, RADPAR decreased by 4%, and BIOMSS increased by 8%. The CALF decreased by 11%. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, overall crop growth in Mexico was below average due to early drought conditions. Floods in late September also negatively impacted subsequent crop growth. Although RAIN returned from below to average levels starting in October, enabling crop conditions to improve by November, the recovery of crop conditions exhibited notable geographic disparities. Specifically, 16.5% of the total cropped areas, exemplified by Northern Nuevo León, enjoyed above-average crop growth, which can be attributed to more favorable climatic conditions and adequate rainfall. Meanwhile, 47.9% of the total cropped areas maintained average-level crop growth, indicating stable conditions across most of Mexico. However, 20.3% of the total cropped areas, especially in Sonora and Chihuahua, suffered from below-average crop growth due to the compounded effects of early droughts and flooding. The VCIx and CPI for Mexico, recorded at 0.74 and 0.85, indicated that crop conditions were generally suboptimal throughout the monitoring period. Despite the recovery from earlier adverse conditions, the agricultural outlook remains bleak in some areas.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region in northern and central Mexico had a 10% increase in RAIN, with TEMP reaching 15.4°C, up by 0.5°C. RADPAR witnessed a decrease of 5% to 922 MJ/m². According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions remained below average until late November, after which there was a gradual recovery to average levels. A significant shift was observed in the CALF, which was at 53%, marking a 24% decline from the five-year average. This decline, coupled with a substantial reduction in the RADPAR, contributed to rather low VCIx and CPI values of 0.59 and 0.69, respectively. These figures highlighted the adverse conditions for crop development and overall vegetation health within the region.

The Humid tropics region with summer rainfall in southeastern Mexico experienced an increase in RAIN with 595 mm recorded (+4%). TEMP increased by 1.0°C to 23.0°C, and RADPAR increased by 1%. BIOMSS exhibited a 4% increase to 992 g DM/m². The CPI at 0.98 indicated that the agricultural production status was within normal levels. Furthermore, the VCIx value of 0.90 indicates a generally normal crop growth within the region. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were close to average.

In the Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains of central Mexico, the area experienced a 26% increase in RAIN to 350 mm. The TEMP saw a rise of 1.1°C to 17.2°C, and there was an 8% decrease in RADPAR to 994 MJ/m2. Despite these mixed climatic signals, BIOMSS increased by 18% to 686 g DM/m². However, the CALF experienced a 14% reduction to 81%, and the VCIx at 0.75, alongside with a low CPI of 0.79 signal underperformance in crop development relative to potential expectations. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions, initially below average, began a recuperative trend towards average levels starting from December.

The Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains region in southern Mexico experienced a notable increment in RAIN with 460 mm recorded (a 43% increase). TEMP rose to 20.1°C, an increase of 0.9°C, while RADPAR decreased by 6%. BIOMSS increased by 14% to 737 g DM/m². The CALF was at 95%, and the VCIx value was 0.86. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were below average until late November, at which point they began to recover to average levels. However, the CPI of 0.93, denoted conditions slightly below the normal threshold for crop development in this region.

Figure 3.32 Mexico’s crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI        (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles             (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.55 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.56 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024