No crops were grown in Mongolia during the monitoring period from October 2023 to January 2024 due to the cold winter season, as the country only cultivates summer crops from May to September. Consequently, our attention during this phase is primarily directed towards the prospective influence of the agroclimatic conditions on the forthcoming summer crop sowing. Given that a mere 2.9% of the arable land is irrigated, the dependency on rainfall for crop growth is substantial. Therefore, the accumulation of winter snow and the ensuing soil moisture content are essential for a successful summer harvest.

The recorded RAIN was 54 mm, exceeding the 15-year average (15YA) by 3%. Such a slight uptick in precipitation may contribute positively to the soil moisture reserves needed for the next planting season. The observed average TEMP was -12.4°C, marginally warmer by 1.1°C than the 15YA. With RADPAR also registering slightly above the 15YA and BIOMSS showing a significant rise from the 15YA (+16%), the underlying conditions for summer crop cultivation appear normal. Due to the snow cover, the NDVI was close to zero from November 2023 to January 2024. The vegetation was in good condition with a VCIx of 0.83, the maximum VCI map and NDVI department map show that the area with the best vegetation conditions is located in the western part of the Selenge-Onon Region (138). The Crop Production Index (CPI), standing at 1.5, reflects favorable prospects for the summer crops.  Together, these indicators paint a promising picture, suggesting that the agroclimatic conditions during this monitoring period have laid a solid groundwork for summer crop planting.

Regional analysis

Mongolia can be divided into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions: Altai (135), Gobi Desert (136), Hangai Khuvsgul Region (137), Selenge-Onon Region (138), and Central and Eastern Steppe (139). With no cultivated land in Altai and Gobi Desert, our main concern is with the three regions of Hangai Khuvsgul, Selenge-Onon, and Central and Eastern Steppe.

In the Hangai Khuvsgul Region, the RAIN recorded was 44 mm, which is 2% below the 15YA. The TEMP was 1.5°C warmer than the 15YA, indicating a warmer period than usual. RADPAR saw a slight increase of 2% from the 15YA, and BIOMSS was also 2% above the 15-year average.

For the Selenge-Onon Region, RAIN was recorded at 54 mm, marking a 5% increase from the 15YA. The TEMP was cooler by 0.8°C compared to the 15YA. RADPAR values showed a 2% increase compared to the 15YA, and BIOMSS accumulation was 2% above the 15YA. The CPI was 1.62, indicating a favorable condition for the coming summer crops.

In the Central and Eastern Steppe, the RAIN amount was 73 mm, which is 12% above the 15YA and could positively impact crop hydration. The TEMP rose by 0.5°C above the 15YA, and RADPAR was slightly up by 1%. BIOMSS was 1% above the 15YA.

Overall, the agroclimatic conditions in these three regions are generally normal. The VCIx ranged from 0.74 to 0.87, indicating good vegetation condition for the three regions. The slight increase in precipitation and warmer temperatures are conducive to improving soil moisture content, laying the groundwork for the cultivation of summer crops.

Figure 3.34 Mongolia's crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI	(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles                                       (g) Temperature profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hangai Khuvsgul Region (left) and Selenge-Onon Region (right))
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central and Eastern Steppe)

(j) CPI time series graph for Mongolia

                                                                                          CPI Time Series in Bulletin 1

Table 3.59 Mongolia's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.60 Mongolia's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024