During the monitoring period from October 2023 to January 2024, the main crops in Mozambique, including maize and rice, were completely planted and in the development stage. Wheat planting started in late January 2024. Throughout this period, drier and warmer weather than normal prevailed during the first stages of crop development nationwide. Agroclimatic indicators at the national level revealed generally unfavorable conditions, with 28% below-average rainfall. Alarmingly, a sharp drop in rainfall started in the last decade of January. Temperatures were 0.4ºC higher than average, and photosynthetic active radiation 1% above average. Consequently, total biomass production decreased by 9% compared to the 15YA.

The NDVI-based crop development graph for Mozambique showed crop conditions close to or above average throughout the monitoring period. The distribution of NDVI departure from the past five years' average, along with its profiles, further indicated the spatial crop growth conditions in the country. Provinces such as Gaza, Sofala, and Zambézia experienced above-average crop conditions during the entire monitoring period, accounting for 18.3% of the total country's arable land area. However, crop conditions were initially unfavorable in coastal provinces like Gaza, Inhambane, and Nampula. Their conditions improved in late November and remained above average until the end of the reporting period. The better crop conditions in these regions, despite the rainfall deficit, can be attributed to irrigation activities in some areas, particularly for crops like rice and sugarcane.

The vegetation condition index revealed similar spatial patterns with relatively high values in regions along the Limpopo, Zambeze, and Buzi rivers. Despite the insufficient rainfall, the VCI remained considerable at 0.88. The country's cropped arable land fraction was 99%, and the Crop Production Index (CPI) during this period was 1.01, indicating normal conditions. In summary, crop conditions in Mozambique were generally below average but close to average, suggesting that average production levels can be expected. However, the sharp drop in rainfall starting in mid January may pose a serious threat to this year’s crop production.

Regional Analysis

Based on the national cropping system, topography, and climate, CropWatch has subdivided Mozambique into five agroecological zones (AEZs) including the Buzi basin (140), Northern High-altitude areas (141), Low Zambezi River basin (142), Northern coast (143), and the Southern region (144).

At the regional level, the agroclimatic indicators showed a decrease in rainfall in all of the agroecological zones. The Buzi basin experienced a significant deficit, with 45% below the 15-year average. The Low Zambezia River basin and the southern region also had below-average rainfall, with deficits of 37% and 43%, respectively. In contrast, the northern high-altitude areas and the northern coast had milder deficits, at 19% and 16% below average, respectively. Temperature variations showed slight increases compared to the 15-year average. For instance, the Buzi basin had a temperature of 24.0°C, which was 0.6°C higher than the average. Similarly, the Low Zambezia River basin and the northern coast had temperatures 0.5°C above the 15-year average. The northern high-altitude areas and the southern region had temperatures close to the 15-year average. Regarding photosynthetic active radiation (RADPAR), most regions were close to the 15-year average, except for the Buzi basin, which experienced a 4% increase. The southern region also had a slightly higher radiation level, while the other regions were in line with the 15-year average. Biomass production was below average in most regions, reflecting the impact of the climatic conditions. For example, the Buzi basin had biomass production 11% below the 15-year average, followed by the southern region with a 15% decrease. The northern high-altitude areas and the northern coast had milder decreases in biomass production, at 4% and 2% below average, respectively. The Low Zambezia River basin showed the most significant decrease, with biomass production 15% below the 15-year average.

The regional crop conditions development graphs based on NDVI show that in the Buzi basin and Low Zambezia River basin, crop conditions were unfavourable for most of the monitoring period. Conversely, in the remaining regions, crop conditions were close to or above average when compared to the average of the past five years. Looking at the agronomic indicators, the cropped arable land fraction was above 97% in all agroecological regions, with the Buzi basin having a CALF of 100%. These values represent minor changes from the 5YA. No departure for the Buzi basin and Low Zambezia River basin, a departure of 2% for the Northern high-altitude areas and the southern region, and 3% for the Northern coast. The maximum vegetation condition index varied from 0.83 in the Buzi basin to 0.91 in the Northern high-altitude areas. For this period, a normal and close-to-normal CPI was observed in all agroecological zones, with values ranging from 0.90 to 1.07.

Figure 3.35 Mozambique's crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop conditions development graph based on NDVI                      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) National time-series rainfall profiles               (g) National time-series temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin (left), and Northern high-altitude areas (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (left), and Northern coast region (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Southern region

(k) Crop production index - National (left) and Buzi basin (right)

(l) Crop production index - Northern high-altitude areas (left)  and Lower Zambezi River basin (right)

(m) Crop production index - Northern coast region (left) and Southern region (right)

Table 3.61 Mozambique’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.62 Mozambique’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024