This report covers crop conditions for maize(second), rice(irrigated) and rice(rainfed) from October 2023 to January 2024 in Nigeria. This monitoring period covers the growing and harvesting stages of second-season maize as well as the harvesting stage of irrigated-rice. Moreover, rice(rainfed), millet and sorghum were harvested in October. The country experiences a transition from rainy to dry season during the monitoring period.  The country's rain-fed crop planting season has reduced due to lower rainfall. Agroclimatic indicators for this period present rainfall to be below the 15-year average (ΔRAIN -14%), while accumulated temperature and radiation were slightly above average (ΔTEMP +0.1°C and ΔRADPAR +2%). The potential biomass was estimated to decrease by 13% above the 15YA (BIOMSS, 510 gDM/m²). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly unfavorable as they fell below the 5-year average due to agro-climatic conditions for most of the monitoring period. The NDVI departure clustering map indicates that 51.2% of the total cropped land area is predominantly distributed across the country and consistently remained below average throughout the reporting period. Approximately 35% of the cropped area is sparsely scattered within the country, showing above-average values. There was a decline in the cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 82%) decreased by 6% compared to its 5YA. Considering the favorable maximum VCI value of 0.84, the Crop Production Index (CPI) of 0.92 was below the five-year average CPl (1.02) and below the CPI last year (0.96). Hence, crop conditions in Nigeria can be assessed to be below average, especially in the Sahel Savannah.

Regional Analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, nine sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) from the north towards the south can be distinguished for Nigeria: Sahel Savannah (152), Sudan Savannah (153), Guinea Savannah (147), Derived Savannah (145), Jos Plateau (148), Montane Forest (151), Lowland Rainforest (149), Freshwater Swamp Forest (146) and Mangrove Forest (150).

The Sahel Savanah is found in the North-Eastern part of the country, followed by the Sudan Savanah, which stretches across the entire northern region. The Guinea savannah is the largest, which is a transition between the Sudan Savanah and the Derived Savanah, covering a large portion of the central part of the country. The Montane Forest, Fresh Water Swamp, and Mangrove Forest are all located in the Southern part of the country, while the crop condition in these regions had little impact on the crop production of Nigeria since the crop fields are sparse.

In the Derived Savannah zone, the agroclimatic indicators showed that accumulated rainfall decreased 4% compared to the 15YA whereas both temperature and radiation increased (∆TEMP +0.1°C, ∆RADPAR +2%) leaving biomass with declined of 3%. Also, CALF increased slightly above the 5-year average by 0.3%, with a favorable maximum VCI at 0.9 and crop production index (CPI 1.0) indicating that the current season agricultural production situation for this region was normal. The NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions in the area were slightly below the 5YA, except in early October which is above the 5YA.  

The Guinea Savannah Zone showed decreased rainfall by 35% compared to its 15YA but recorded above-average temperature and radiation (∆TEMP +0.2°C and ∆RADPAR +2%) with a declined biomass of 8%. The CALF increased by 0.3% despite the reduced rainfall during the monitoring period. The maximum VCI was at 0.9, with a crop production index (CPI 1.0) at the 5YA indicating a normal agricultural production situation. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were slightly below average in the monitoring period.

In the Sahel Savannah Zone, recent changes include a significant decrease in rainfall (-∆RAIN -85%), a slight decrease in temperature (∆TEMP-0.5°C), and an increase in radiation (∆RADPAR 1.9%). These alterations have led to a notable decline in biomass 269 g DM/m² by 32% compared to its 15YA. Additionally, the CALF reduced by (35.8%) with a maximum VCI of 0.6 which is below average and Crop production index 0.84 shows unfavorable condition.

In the Sudan Savannah Zone, rainfall decreased (-59.6%), while radiation increased (2.1%) and temperature decreased slightly (-0.1°C). Biomass production decreased (-24.5%) with CALF reduced (-7.8%) showing maximum VCI of 0.81. The CPI for this region was 0.84, which was below the 5YA. NDVI indicated that crop condition was below the 5YA in the monitoring period.

In the Jos Plateau zone, rainfall decreased (∆RAIN -74%), while temperature and radiation increased above the 15-year average (∆TEMP +0.1°C, ∆RADPAR +2%). Biomass production decreased (∆BIOMASS -5%), and CALF reduced by 1% with a maximum VCI of 0.9. The crop production index (CPI 0.85) indicated unfavorable conditions as it fell below the 5YA, and NDVI indicated that crop condition was below the 5-year average.

Lowland Rainforest zones has slight increase in rainfall (∆RAIN +1%) with temperature and radiation also increased (∆TEMP +0.2°C, ∆RADPAR +0.5%) and Biomass reduced (∆BIOMASS -5.2%) compared to the 15YA. CALF slightly increased by 0.2% with a favorable maximum VCI (0.93) and below average CPI (0.96). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were above the 5YA average in the early months of the monitoring period.

 Figure 3.37 Nigeria’s crop condition, October 2023 – January 2024

(a)    Phenology of major crops

(b)    Crop condition development graph based on NDVI       (c) Maximum VCI

 (d)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA       (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) CPI time series graph

         (g) Rainfall profiles                                         (h) Temperature profiles

      (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Derived Savannah, Right: Guinea Savannah)

        (j ) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Sahel Savannah, Right: Sudan Savannah)

(i)                 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Jos Plateau, Right: Lowland Rainforest)

Table 3.65 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October2023 - January2024

Table 3.66 Nigeria's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October2023 - January2024