The reporting period covers the planting and vegetative growth of winter wheat, as well as the harvest of maize and rice in October. The agroclimatic and agronomic indicators suggest rather unfavorable crop conditions from October 2023 to January 2024.

Nationwide,  RAIN (-32%) was below average, whereas TEMP (+1.3°C) and RADPAR (+1%) were above average compared to the 15YA. Rainfall was below average in the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (-38%), Northern highlands (-27%) and Northern Punjab (-31%).  Apart from Northern Punjab, temperatures were above average. The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in a BIOMSS decrease by 3% compared to the 15YA.

During the previous monitoring period, heavy monsoon rains had caused flooding conditions, which were followed by a rainfall deficit starting in August. NDVI of the drought affected crops was below average in October. NDVI of the wheat crop, which was sown in November, developed unfavorably. Most of the Punjab and the lower Indus River basin, the two major wheat producing areas, had below-average conditions according to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles from November. The drop in NDVI observed in January is probably an artifact, due to fog or cloud cover in the satellite images. The national average of VCIx was 0.72 and CALF decreased by 2%. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Pakistan is 0.90, reflecting a rather unfavorable crop outlook for this period.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions:  the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sind (155)，the Northern highlands (156) and the Northern Punjab (157) region. 

RAIN was sharply below average by 32%, while TEMP was above average by 1.0°C and RADPAR was on average in the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind. BIOMSS increased by 6% as compared to the fifteen-year average. Very low rainfall resulted in poor crop conditions from late October to early December. During the early stages of winter wheat growth, crop conditions based on NDVI development profiles were above average due to irrigation in December.  VCIx was lower than 0.5 in some of the areas in the North.  CALF was 71%, similar to the average of the previous five years. The Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.91. Crop conditions for winter wheat were below average.

In the Northern highlands region, RAIN (-27%) was below average, together with higher RADPAR (+1%) and TEMP (+1.9°C). As a result, the estimated BIOMSS decreased by 9%. The NDVI development graph showed above-average crop conditions starting before November; then it decreased to below-average. CALF was at 48%, a decrease over the five-year average of 5%, evidenced by a low CPI of 0.79.  Crop prospects are unfavorable.

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It experienced a sharply below-average RAIN (-31%). TEMP departure was -0.4°C, and RADPAR was above average by 3%. The resulting BIOMSS decreased by 8% in this region. Crop conditions assessed through NDVI-based crop development profiles showed below-average values from November due to drought. It subsequently decreased to zero in early January as a result of fog or cloud cover in the satellite images. There are some areas with VCIx lower than 0.5 for this region. The CALF was at 81%, which was 3% below the five-year average. Overall, the winter wheat production potential for the region is below average, evidenced by a low CPI of 0.90.  Favorable agroclimatic and agronomic conditions will be crucial to ensure normal yield levels for wheat.

Figure 3.38 Pakistan crop condition, October 2023 - January 2024

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                             c) Time series rainfall profile         

d) Maximum VCI

e)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA          f) NDVI departure profile

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Lower Indus river basin)

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern highlands)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern Punjab)

j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.67 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, October 2023- January 2024

Table 3.68 Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, October 2023 - January 2024