During the monitoring period, the sowing of second-season maize and second-season rice in the Philippines both started in October, while the harvest of main-season rice was completed by late December. Compared to the past 15 years, the weather in the monitored period was relatively warm and dry. The precipitation (RAIN) was approximately 5% below average, and the average temperature (TEMP) was around 0.3°C higher. Radiation (RADPAR) also slightly increased by 1%. The lower precipitation and higher temperatures resulted in a slight decrease in potential biomass (BIOMASS) by about 2%. However, the NDVI time-series curve indicates that the growth conditions of crops have consistently remained at an average level. The NDVI departure clustering results also indicate that NDVI for the majority of croplands (represented by blue, orange, and dark green colors, approximately 95.3%) fluctuated within the normal range. However, the crop NDVI values showed a decline at the end of the monitoring period, seemingly associated with the slightly below average precipitation. Only about 4.7% of a small amount of cropland exhibited noticeable NDVI declines in early November and early January, mainly concentrated in the southeast region of Luzon Island. Furthermore, the VCIx in Philippines reached 0.94, with a nearly 100% CALF, and the CPI was 0.98. Considering both agroclimatic and agronomical indicators in the Philippines, the crop condition in the Philippines is normal.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands, agro-ecological zone 158), the Hilly region (Island of Bohol, Sebu and Negros, agro-ecological zone 159), and the Lowlands region (northern islands, agro-ecological zone 160). The CALF for each zone are relatively stable, almost reaching 100%, with VCIx values all exceeding 0.93.

In the Forest region, there was an increase of approximately 7% in precipitation (RAIN), a rise of about 0.3°C in average temperature (TEMP), a decrease of around 1% in radiation (RADPAR), and a slight decrease of 1% in potential biomass (BIOMASS). The NDVI of crops in this region was slightly higher than the average level in late December, while at other times, it remained mostly at the average level. The VCIx for this zone reached as high as 0.95, with a CPI of 0.97, indicating that the crop condition in this region is normal.

For the Hilly region, there was a slight increase of 1% in precipitation (RAIN), a slight decrease of 0.1°C in average temperature (TEMP),an increase of 1% in radiation (RADPAR), and the potential biomass (BIOMASS) maintained a normal level. The NDVI of crops in this region mostly remained at the average level, although it was slightly lower than average in mid-January. This could be attributed to the reduced precipitation in January, causing a slowing down of the growth of second-season maize in the region. The VCIx for this region reached as high as 0.95, with a CPI of 0.98, indicating that the crop condition in this region is generally normal.

In the Lowlands region, there was a significant decrease of 22% in precipitation (RAIN), an increase of approximately 4% in radiation (RADPAR), and an elevated average temperature (TEMP) of about 0.3°C. The reduced precipitation was unfavorable for the accumulation of crop biomass, resulting in a slightly lower potential biomass (BIOMASS), approximately 5% below the average level. The NDVI of crops in this region remained at the average level between October and January, although it was slightly lower than the average level in January. The lower precipitation also seems to have slowed down the growth of second-season maize in this region. The VCIx for this region was 0.93, with a CPI of 0.99, indicating that the impact of the current precipitation deficit is limited, and the overall crop condition in this region remains normal.

Figure 3.39 Philippines' crop condition, October, 2023 - January, 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                 (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                            (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile (left) and rainfall profile (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Forest region (left) and in Hilly region (right)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Lowland region

(i) CPI time series graph

Table 3.64 Philippines' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national reigons, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.65 Philippines' agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024