This monitoring period covers the maize harvest in October and the sowing and establishment of winter cereals, before they went into winter dormancy. Compared to the average of the last 15 years, RAIN was higher by 47% and TEMP was warmer by 0.6°C, resulting in a higher potential BIOMSS (+7%). Meanwhile, RADPAR was lower by 5%. Cropwatch's last monitoring results indicated that winter crop planting was favorable. Precipitation was higher than average from November to January, which may have caused excess soil moisture conditions. NDVI in most periods of this monitoring was significantly lower, which was related to the continuous rainy days. However, most of the very low NDVI values are artifacts caused by cloud cover, fog and snow on the ground. CALF was close to 100% and VCIx reached 0.82. Nearly all regions had VCIx values above 0.5. CPI was 0.85 indicating an unfavorable crop growth outlook. However, the high CALF idicates that the area of winter cereals is close to the long-term average.

In general, excessive precipitation helped restore ground water levels. But to some degree, they also negatively affected crop growth in the fall. But the moist soil provides favorable conditions for subsequent growth during the spring green-up period.        

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below (shown by Figure (c)  Maximum VCI). They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (162, the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (163, Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (161, Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (164) from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to the Voivodeships.

Compared to the average of the last 15 years, precipitation in the Northern oats and potatoes area was 44% higher; temperature was 0.3℃ higher, and RADPAR was 11% lower, leading to a higher BIOMSS (ΔBIOMSS, +2%). CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.88. CPI was 0.94, indicating a normal crop production outlook.

In the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area, rainfall and temperature were both higher by 47% and 0.4℃, respectively, and RADPAR was 10% lower, resulting in a 4% higher BIOMSS. The percentage of cultivated land was 99%, close to the 5-year average (-1%). VCIx was 0.83. CPI was 0.87. Crop growth conditions were rather unfavorable.

Compared with the average of the last 15 years, in the Central rye and potatoes area, precipitation was 45% higher, temperature was 0.6°C higher, RADPAR was 5% lower. This led to a 7% higher BIOMSS. CALF was 99%, close to average. VCIx was 0.79 and CPI was 0.82, the lowest values in the four subregions. This subregion is the largest cultivated zone in the country. Its rather unfavorable crop conditions will have some negative impact at the national scale.

In the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, precipitation was 53% higher, temperature was 0.8°C higher, RADPAR was 2% lower, resulting in a 10% higher BIOMSS as compared to the 15YA. CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.86. CPI was 0.87, indicating a slightly unfavorable crop production outlook.

Figure 3.40 Poland's crop condition, October 2023 – January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(h) Rainfall profiles

 (i) Temperature profiles

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Northern oats and potatoes area (left) and Northern-central wheat and sugar beet area (right).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Central rye and potatoes area (left) and Southern wheat and sugar beet area (right)

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.71 Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2023 - January 2024

Table 3.72 Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2023 - January 2024