This monitoring period covers the completion of sowing of winter wheat in October. This is followed by early vegetative growth and a subsequent dormancy period over the winter.

At the national level, data show that NDVI before snow cover establishment was mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, the rainfall (RAIN) and temperature (TEMP) were above average (ΔRAIN +32% and ΔTEMP +0.9°C), while  radiation (RADPAR) was slightly below average (-2%) compared to the 15-year average (15YA). 

Precipitation in almost all decades was above the 15YA, except for the beginning of October and December, when the amount of precipitation was close to the 15-year average as well as at the end of January when it was at the level of the previous year. Temperatures from the beginning of October until November and at the end of January were slightly above the level of the last year and the 15-year average or close to it. Then they dropped below the 15-year average except for late December when they exceeded the 15-year maximum.

The biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) increased by 11%. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.81. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 60%) decreased by 7% compared to its 5YA. CPI (0.90) was below the average and the baseline, indicating a slightly unfavorable crop production situation.

Among major winter crop production regions, the southern part of South Caucasus and North Caucasus, the south-eastern part of Middle Volga as well as the southern part of Ural and the Western Volga region showed positive NDVI departures in November (44% of the territory) with VCIx mainly up to 0.8. Central region, Central black soils region, the rest of South and North Caucasus, as well as the rest of Middle Volga and Ural and the Western Volga regions, showed negative NDVI departures during the whole analyzed period. VCIx varied but stayed mainly in the range of <0.5 and 0.5-0.8.

There was a delay in winter crop sowing and germination due to dry soil conditions caused by a precipitation deficit (South Caucasus North Caucasus, Middle Volga, Ural and the Western Volga). Other regions had excessive rainfall (Central and Central Black Soil region). Agroclimatic conditions in December and January were better than the 15-year average. They will provide favorable conditions for spring green-up, which will start in April in most regions.

Regional analysis

          Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, thirteen sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Russia, but the Amur and Primorsky Krai (168), Northwest Region including Novgorod (175), Subarctic region (177) and West subarctic region (180) are too cold for crop production during this monitoring period.

The sharp negative departures in NDVI values can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images, or snow and fog. They do not depict the crop conditions.

In the South Caucasus (176) all agroclimatic indicators showed positive departure. Rainfall was 33% above the 15-year average. The temperature was 1.5°C higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR increased by 4% compared to the 15-year average. Biomass was higher by 19% than the 15-year average. The cropped area decreased by 18% compared to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.66. CPI was 0.61.

NDVI was mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. Despite the generally favorable agroclimatic conditions during the analyzed period, the dry situation at the beginning of autumn led to a shift in the sowing period to a later date and insufficient development of winter crops before the establishment of snow cover, which was reflected in lower NDVI values. Also, lower NDVI values are due to more snow in December-January. The decrease in the sowing area of winter crops could be one of the factors contributing to the low NDVI values as well.

In the Northern Caucasus (174) almost all agroclimatic indicators showed positive departures. Precipitation was higher by 59% compared to the 15-year average. Temperature increased by 1.9°C compared to the 15-year average. The RADPAR value was equal to the 15-year average. The biomass increased by 20%. Cropped area increased by 9% compared to the 5-year average. The VCIx value was 0.73. CPI was 0.99.

NDVI was mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. Among the reasons for lower NDVI values could be a delay in the sowing period and insufficient development of crops before snow cover setting due to the lack of precipitation at the beginning of autumn and low soil moisture. Additionally, lower NDVI values can be attributed to higher amounts of snow in December-January.

In Central Russia (169), only precipitation showed positive departure. Rainfall was higher by 29% compared to the 15-year average. Temperature was lower by 0.7°C compared to the 15-year average.  RADPAR decreased by 8%.  Biomass decreased by 4% relative to the 15-year average. The cropped area was 2% below the 5-year average. VCI was 0.85. CPI was 0.94.

NDVI was mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. Excessive rainfall at the beginning of autumn led to a shift in the sowing period to a later date and insufficient development of crops before the establishment of snow cover, which was reflected in lower NDVI values. Higher snow in December-January could have also contributed to the decrease of observed NDVI.

In Central Black Soils Region (170), temperature was higher by 0.4°C compared to the 15-year average. Precipitation was 60% above the 15-year average, and RADPAR was lower by 10%. The amount of biomass was 4% above the 15-year average. Cropped area decreased by 18% relative to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.69. CPI was 0.70.

NDVI was mainly below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. Lower NDVI values were observed, despite the generally favorable agroclimatic conditions during the examined period. They were a result of the excessive rainfall, which caused the sowing time to shift to a later date, as well as insufficient crop growth prior to the snow cover development. Another reason for lower NDVI values is heavy snowfall in December and January. The decrease in the sowing area of winter crops could also be one of the factors contributing to the observed NDVI values.

In Middle Volga (173) region, the amount of precipitation was 40% higher than the 15-year average. Temperature increased by 0.7°C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR decreased by 7% compared to the 15-year average. Biomass increased by 9% compared to the 15-year average. Cropped area was by 12% lower than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.77. CPI was 0.80.

NDVI was mainly below the 5-year average and the value of the previous year. Despite the generally favorable agroclimatic conditions during the analyzed period, the lack of precipitation and low soil moisture at the beginning of the autumn led to a delay in the sowing period and insufficient development of crops before the establishment of snow cover, which resulted in lower NDVI values. Lower NDVI values could be caused by more snow in December-January as well. The decrease in the sowing area of winter crops could also have contributed to the observed NDVI values.

In the Ural and the Western Volga (178) region, the amount of precipitation was 43% above the 15-year average. Temperature increased by 1.6°C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR was by 9% below the 15-year average. Biomass was by 18% higher than the 15-year average. Cropped area was by 10% lower than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.86. CPI was 0.98.

NDVI mainly was close to the level of the previous year but below the 5-year average. Agroclimatic conditions during the analyzed period were generally favorable. However, there were several factors that could have negatively affected NDVI values. First of all, there was the lack of precipitation and low soil moisture at the beginning of autumn which caused a delay in the sowing period and resulted in insufficient development of winter crops before the establishment of snow cover. Secondly, the amount of snow in December and January was rather high. There also was a decrease in the sowing area of winter crops.

In Eastern Siberia (171), the amount of precipitation was by 12% above the 15-year average. The temperature was higher than the 15-year average by 1.0°C. RADPAR was lower by 6% compared to the 15-year average. Biomass was higher by 12% compared to the 15-year average. Cropped area was by 13% lower than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.82. CPI was 1.02.

At the beginning of October, NDVI was close to the 5-year maximum then it dropped below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region. Therefore, its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russian Federation.

In Middle Siberia (172), rainfall decreased compared to the 15-year average by 12%. Temperature was above the 15-year average by 0.9°C. RADPAR increased by 5% above the 15-year average. Biomass was by 11% higher than the 15-year average. Cropped area was by 26% lower than the 5-year average.  VCIx was 0.77. CPI was 1.01.

NDVI was below the level of the previous year and the 5-year average. The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region, therefore its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russian Federation.

In Western Siberia (179), rainfall was by 18% above the 15-year average. Air temperature increased by 2.7°C relative to the 15-year average. The RADPAR was equal to the 15-year average. Biomass increased by 26% compared to 15-year average. Cropped area increased by 14% compared to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.99. CPI was 1.55.

At the beginning of October, NDVI was close to the 5-year maximum, then it dropped below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year. The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region. Therefore, its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russian Federation.

Figure 3.42 Russia’s crop condition, October 2023-January 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central black soils area)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)            Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(k) Rainfall index

(l) Temperature index

(m) CPI Time Series graph

Table 3.75 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2023-January 2024

Table 3.76 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2023-January 2024